NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3176aa7c2bb7ea202e19c87365986fd7525ab9a7335bef3fc7a6665d17eb09af

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Pistons, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,527 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbde3…4a49backed Pistons	45c	7,905$3,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,347.49	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks	56c	5,000$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks	53c	4,782$2,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,522.18	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Bucks	57c	2,200$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,254	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2f…aa56backed Pistons	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ec…55ebbacked Bucks	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons	47c	1,889$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,001.17	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bucks	57c	1,754$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	134	55.2%74 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	44c	1,268$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Pistons	46c	1,019$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.66	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons	45c	937$422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.35	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Bucks	56c	676.87$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.02	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons	46c	652.17$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.17	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	54c	506.96$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.13	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bucks	55c	499.99$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Pistons	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Pistons	44c	377.67$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.68	204	34.8%71 W · 133 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Bucks	59c	337.74$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Pistons	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Pistons	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae4d…fc45backed Pistons	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	116	26.7%31 W · 85 L	-16.8wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Pistons	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Pistons	48c	196.88$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.85	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons	46c	185.19$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Bucks	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pistons	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Bucks	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pistons	49c	92.63$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.29	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Bucks	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	47c	82.66$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.81	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons	38c	77.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.2	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Bucks	55c	72.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Bucks	56c	69$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Bucks	53c	47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bucks	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Pistons	48c	35.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.42	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Pistons	47c	33.71$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.87	58	36.2%21 W · 37 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Bucks	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event