NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90cb69378ca2ad88fffe1c9e3a787a0d77d440092f09d8e7783cdd62008d3859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 11,943$5,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,661.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Over | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.55 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 48c | 2,200$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 1,464$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.32 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Under | 52c | 469.23$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 348$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 306$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 47c | 262$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…6bffbacked Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Over | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 48c | 219.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 51c | 212$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 41c | 193.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 145.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 131$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 44c | 71.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…82c3backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 54c | 48.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 48c | 41.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 52c | 30.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 53c | 29.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Over | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5this page
- Pistons vs. BucksPistons won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.