TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Under40c50,908$20,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,464.2515647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over60c18,312$10,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,986.995250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over60c15,020$8,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,960.6512451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0008845.5%40 W · 48 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over60c2,300$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37315341.2%63 W · 90 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.995042%21 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over60c1,533$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.143,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over60c1,007$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.3213347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under63c971.8$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6828851.4%148 W · 140 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over60c851.33$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.0818967.2%127 W · 62 L+21.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over45c800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3604228.6%12 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under47c710.47$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.3687154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c587.39$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0177751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over62c580.11$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3591136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over47c528.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Under36c500.24$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+141.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over47c260.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under46c162.02$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.181,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under38c148.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5482044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b0…2fcdbacked Over49c140$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over64c139.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906439.1%25 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over74c121.62$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907642.1%32 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over69c120.29$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839758.8%57 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over62c99.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf237…46edbacked Over47c88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47951.9%41 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under41c50.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.963426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-43.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over50c50.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Over56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under35c49.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.329957.6%57 W · 42 L+13.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Over65c34.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over60c34.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…bc23backed Over61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c21…12bdbacked Under48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under41c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under37c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Over57c21.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3117858.4%104 W · 74 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf815…a557backed Over60c18.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over60c18.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.984259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Over60c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.