Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72bd1f6e3df27015df4a1dbe009a836f1905cf4fb0c09db53bc98e5ab30144af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 776.25$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 305.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 42c | 275$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 232.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 38c | 209.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 178.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 39c | 144.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 57c | 122.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 102.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 87.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 45c | 67.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 63.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Under | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 55c | 55.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 40c | 52.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 39c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4e…110fbacked Under | 61c | 29.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…a407backed Over | 40c | 28.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…eee4backed Under | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.