NBA · resolved market
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6368f11cc1b86a2a0679497d23bbef03b3f16a7f6a7492d4883fda68b78c3d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 7c | 25,649$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed No | 62c | 699.96$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.99 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 11c | 685.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 79c | 632.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d26…2a13backed Yes | 36c | 551.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 21c | 479.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 315.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 73c | 311.88$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…2c44backed Yes | 33c | 303.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 73c | 299.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…fc65backed No | 67c | 298.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 38c | 270$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 198.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ef…1787backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 186.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…1198backed Yes | 9c | 170.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 48c | 161.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 156.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…4498backed No | 74c | 148.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked No | 70c | 142.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Yes | 25c | 137.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 125 | 54.4%68 W · 57 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9b…934ebacked Yes | 34c | 135.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 125.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…22bbbacked Yes | 38c | 105.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a6…29cebacked Yes | 28c | 105.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…5358backed Yes | 30c | 102.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 21c | 101.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…c2e5backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7af3…9d09backed Yes | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed No | 73c | 84.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 81.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…11c9backed Yes | 58c | 74.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…52b0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 27c | 72.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…6324backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed No | 35c | 65.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…62d4backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 61.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 42.4%75 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…d84dbacked No | 74c | 58.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…45bfbacked Yes | 44c | 56.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd051…6d6abacked Yes | 36c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…e224backed Yes | 27c | 55.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…0374backed Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…cb2abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…87a6backed Yes | 31c | 48.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…c986backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 36.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 33c | 35.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb048…1b85backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…fc4cbacked No | 71c | 34.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…8395backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 231 | 39.8%92 W · 139 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked No | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…c0e6backed No | 73c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…4834backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…d236backed Yes | 50c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1b…d30bbacked No | 72c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 70c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…f89cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 71c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.