NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Cavaliers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b7c6068bcd7752fc41a4691997f6c5c45a034e8e99d8ad2028c53a6c21fca2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cavaliersof Hornets, Cavaliers
Resolved: Nov 17, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $108,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,398 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6434…cdbebacked Hornets	1c	13,724$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.4	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Hornets	17c	10,255$1,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748.34	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Hornets	19c	5,884$1,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136.66	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Hornets	17c	4,782$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.59	461	31%143 W · 318 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4849…0f64backed Hornets	17c	4,187$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.84	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Hornets	11c	3,057$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.23	152	34.9%53 W · 99 L	-11.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets	18c	3,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Cavaliers	80c	2,510$2,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507	337	52.5%177 W · 160 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…13c9backed Hornets	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	235	48.1%113 W · 122 L	-13.9wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf884…7a73backed Hornets	17c	1,800$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.98	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8163…e061backed Hornets	17c	1,793$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.34	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Hornets	4c	1,603$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4b…f1e6backed Hornets	7c	1,511$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Hornets	13c	1,487$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.52	1,752	40.6%712 W · 1,040 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8025…ef54backed Hornets	19c	1,263$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d80…7220backed Hornets	22c	1,259$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.06	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Hornets	19c	1,100$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked Hornets	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.46	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-10.2wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed Hornets	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	90	35.6%32 W · 58 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Hornets	17c	999.98$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfb…0dfabacked Hornets	17c	950$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.5	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Hornets	17c	778.6$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.62	723	41.2%298 W · 425 L	+23.0wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306b…3ec5backed Hornets	15c	736.13$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.12	113	32.7%37 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Hornets	18c	676.12$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.19	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-77%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hornets	10c	658.81$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.97	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef3b…5cefbacked Hornets	18c	649.98$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Hornets	10c	644.5$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.47	216	49.1%106 W · 110 L	+18.8wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83d0…af06backed Hornets	10c	591.81$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Hornets	6c	581$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	1,035	1.1%11 W · 1,024 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7569…79ebbacked Hornets	15c	545.23$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.12	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x166f…c6f4backed Hornets	19c	534.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Hornets	19c	527.13$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	236	46.6%110 W · 126 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a8…f9edbacked Hornets	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68cf…004dbacked Hornets	20c	468$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.28	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7fb…386abacked Hornets	21c	428.57$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Hornets	18c	415.5$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.79	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87f7…91e3backed Hornets	10c	399.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea7…f625backed Hornets	18c	360$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.4	82	32.9%27 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf417…d277backed Hornets	10c	285.38$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Hornets	20c	252.85$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.57	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0bd…3e91backed Hornets	19c	250.17$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe438…9471backed Hornets	19c	250.11$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	65	36.9%24 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Hornets	17c	235.28$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	290	43.8%127 W · 163 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Hornets	12c	221.7$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	139	20.1%28 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8142…9c50backed Hornets	21c	220.27$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.27	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf237…46edbacked Hornets	20c	206.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.41	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Cavaliers	79c	201.12$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.19	40	60%24 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed Cavaliers	79c	190.09$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.92	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66db…7afbbacked Hornets	15c	165.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-4.7wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hornets	16c	159.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	1,197	46.7%559 W · 638 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…2a44backed Hornets	14c	139.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…2ab4backed Hornets	18c	136.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Hornets	15c	130$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	76	23.7%18 W · 58 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70de…5688backed Hornets	9c	128.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6702…d809backed Hornets	24c	126.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ea…6f18backed Hornets	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+21%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe4…f393backed Hornets	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	22cpaid	+159.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82e…04c0backed Hornets	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7935…2914backed Hornets	19c	103.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f08…a659backed Hornets	18c	102$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219f…e94ebacked Hornets	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64a…2fa2backed Hornets	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	156	40.4%63 W · 93 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93b…bb37backed Hornets	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	276	42%116 W · 160 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec48…6e5dbacked Hornets	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Hornets	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f14…b199backed Hornets	14c	97.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…24a2backed Hornets	18c	97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…a34cbacked Hornets	19c	95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Hornets	13c	93.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	854	49.4%422 W · 432 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Hornets	20c	87.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	241	47.3%114 W · 127 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Hornets	20c	74.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	108	39.8%43 W · 65 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Hornets	19c	70.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	147	27.9%41 W · 106 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x350c…5cc8backed Hornets	22c	69.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Hornets	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	374	48.7%182 W · 192 L	+11.8wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc094…94e5backed Hornets	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x744b…4e51backed Hornets	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…c78bbacked Hornets	21c	57.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d8…5403backed Hornets	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Cavaliers	79c	25.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.37	122	47.5%58 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae6f…7399backed Cavaliers	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x246b…7b7bbacked Cavaliers	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Cavaliers	76c	19.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.74	109	54.1%59 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hornets vs. Cavaliers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market