NBA · resolved market
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d93b21528c284292037b5750f9f0606a4c67a3b5873910a8fd9fd446604129f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 12c | 9,953$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.79 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.4 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Yes | 11c | 4,450$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…107fbacked Yes | 20c | 875.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 726.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 721.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 21c | 667.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…0122backed Yes | 12c | 615.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 565.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 815 | 29.4%240 W · 575 L | -37.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 553.8$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…c332backed Yes | 12c | 499.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 183 | 32.2%59 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 11c | 499.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 12c | 376$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed Yes | 13c | 312$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Yes | 19c | 157.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1454…b79abacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 31c | 128.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…fb0fbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1f…b240backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…0558backed Yes | 18c | 92.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…46edbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 72.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?this page
- Will Bobby Portis Jr. win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?Yes won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Normal Powell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.