NBA · resolved market
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0dd9003b301c7061316ea944b385b3ad711d53ad18ed737ef066571f85db27d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2580…1d56backed Yes | 14c | 5,292$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 11c | 4,940$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.4 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 10c | 2,106$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Yes | 14c | 1,799$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.93 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 12c | 1,353$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,277$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,198$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 11c | 940$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Yes | 14c | 721$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 3c | 696$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…9e78backed Yes | 21c | 644.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 549.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…e0d4backed Yes | 14c | 381.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e78…bc8dbacked Yes | 12c | 274.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed Yes | 14c | 247.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…e0e0backed Yes | 17c | 236.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Yes | 16c | 236$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…8c82backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…f3c1backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1,638.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…8fe0backed Yes | 14c | 184.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 165.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 12c | 159.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…5073backed Yes | 13c | 157.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 10c | 121.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…93bbbacked Yes | 13c | 119.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…fb0fbacked Yes | 13c | 115.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…0806backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?this page
- Will Bobby Portis Jr. win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?Yes won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Normal Powell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.