TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$655,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$674,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $655,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 522 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead1…c76abacked Yes66c172,140$113,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,332.133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…1449backed No35c77,283$27,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,039.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes64c58,096$37,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,914.710553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No36c46,999$16,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,919.642740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No36c31,680$11,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,404.83534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No34c27,102$9,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,233.829831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No36c20,724$7,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,460.641747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No34c20,589$7,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,012.0469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No25c16,035$3,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,985.93,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf975…4354backed Yes65c15,385$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes64c15,354$9,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,522.0175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No36c11,544$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,155.843333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed No37c10,082$3,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.481136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed No35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No34c9,629$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.984524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed No36c9,560$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,420.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed No34c9,275$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No35c9,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No33c9,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.995923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No34c8,216$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.381,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae6…3cbebacked No34c8,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No33c8,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.931650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes67c7,497$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.23580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes64c7,219$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.758037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5208752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No34c6,940$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,372.4556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked No36c6,864$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No36c6,783$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.935440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No36c5,969$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1491540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No35c5,781$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes64c5,468$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.4838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked No36c5,338$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No36c5,304$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.444740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No35c5,288$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.1911354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No34c5,009$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.1917251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd606…9e01backed No36c4,750$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No1c4,400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…c158backed No35c4,323$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No34c4,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3406126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4406058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No35c3,875$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.252250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72a…944ebacked Yes64c3,697$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae7…d452backed Yes64c3,273$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed No21c3,213$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.52450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a3…9a3bbacked Yes64c3,200$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05011644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf32…5159backed No30c2,935$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No36c2,898$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.43145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d75…6972backed Yes64c2,873$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Yes66c2,513$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.661560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes70c2,415$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.5949143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed No35c2,283$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Yes65c2,200$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc55d…9d2dbacked No35c2,147$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.281163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2805056%28 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes64c1,885$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No34c1,689$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.82948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No35c1,643$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.052948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9616…9549backed Yes65c1,579$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.68366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e7…55d4backed Yes65c1,543$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.4615540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed Yes66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.152147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…5833backed No36c1,458$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes66c1,453$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.0210361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No34c1,289$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes72c1,281$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.6844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No35c1,274$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes66c1,262$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.1217652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No36c1,208$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4352218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a09…06aabacked Yes65c1,201$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked No37c1,200$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No34c1,197$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.16053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb22a…8e6cbacked Yes65c1,120$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No36c1,090$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f3…9576backed Yes65c1,025$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed No35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked No36c992.58$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes76c980.31$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.0719458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b6…0ebcbacked No34c980$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No5c833.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes69c827.34$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.948143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed No34c800$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Yes64c800$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Yes66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9258…9c68backed No35c799.92$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3929…c3f2backed Yes65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Yes65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc87…e026backed Yes65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc35b…6eb2backed Yes65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed No34c761.45$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8970%0 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x806b…5cd8backed Yes66c758.98$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.051866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c5f…ced0backed No28c750.55$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No34c701$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.342441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefab…6277backed Yes65c692.31$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed No6c683.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes64c673.48$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6411762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.