TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed No78c9,714$7,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.5269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No78c6,106$4,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.8675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes2c5,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+199.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf975…4354backed Yes23c5,435$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No78c4,600$3,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0125549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7617…0982backed Yes22c3,700$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No78c3,365$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0b…57d5backed Yes22c3,280$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…47bbbacked Yes22c2,888$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Yes22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes21c1,694$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7616647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes21c1,267$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.161,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes7c1,101$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.313,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe161…a10bbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No78c995$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.930054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No78c799.96$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes6c705.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No79c628$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No78c500$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4115064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed No79c476.18$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006450%32 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes20c308$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.713129%9 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6616045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes14c253$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…c578backed No79c225$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes18c192.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5376234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1366…bf01backed Yes22c165$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No79c157.57$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.146053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3363645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes22c136.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5820957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No78c120.72$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5610051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No79c118.81$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.951241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5138845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No79c82.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.234151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed Yes22c81.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.854858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked No78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Yes22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…3a38backed Yes22c65.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.137344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a2…f3f9backed Yes22c60.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…57c6backed Yes22c59.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed No79c55.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.773234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes21c54.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.497152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1110258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed No79c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.910262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3615160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked No78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.79564.2%61 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29c…cffdbacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea2…f83fbacked No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…12b6backed No79c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cef…3cd4backed No79c25.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.53158.1%18 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa87…1ab8backed No79c24.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1a…eda4backed No79c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3903…7731backed No79c23.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3615…5ef9backed No79c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed No78c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…6ab5backed No79c20.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b2…189ebacked No79c20.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd2…1562backed No79c20.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56a…a946backed No79c19.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc08f…2cb3backed No79c15.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No78c15.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4411563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd456…2e78backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2576…b2f2backed No79c14.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No78c13.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0611281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.