Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a208f63a63cc7ecdd4e0c9b99877c6684cec12e53e7f3620f75482ef281a632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 13c | 7,546$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.59 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,494$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 4,936$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.77 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7617…0982backed Yes | 14c | 3,700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…57d5backed Yes | 14c | 3,280$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,980$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.14 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…47bbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,888$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 12c | 2,303$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 13c | 1,041$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 13c | 1,020$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Yes | 13c | 690$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 9c | 558$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 13c | 327.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…d9ccbacked Yes | 14c | 311$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 10c | 186$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…ae9dbacked Yes | 13c | 174.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 11c | 142.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…9a7ebacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 13c | 77.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.