Movies · resolved market
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58fa6280cdc03a27039a8f05c1d64bed7e55ad22327280363bb5829d62b5ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,347 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 68c | 1,920$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.08 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,662$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.62 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 74c | 1,463$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.19 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 815.22$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.98 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 693$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 40c | 623.26$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.47 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 54c | 576.87$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.14 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 30c | 500.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.96 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 321.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 309.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 43c | 297.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 27c | 291.53$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.48 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 288.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 31c | 185.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51d…b450backed No | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…8433backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 22c | 178$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 169.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 152.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 23c | 135.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 118.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 114.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…6a6ebacked Yes | 28c | 107.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 17c | 92.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 79c | 81.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 33c | 76.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 33c | 76.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…434bbacked Yes | 58c | 74.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes | 33c | 61.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 79c | 57.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 80c | 52.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 42c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…2ac1backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 60c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 51c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 21.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…7e64backed Yes | 63c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m?this page
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11.5m?No won
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 13m?No won
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?No won
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?No won
- Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.