TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,768 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes2c5,179$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes19c4,381$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.7523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2702…7b89backed Yes15c2,140$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes35c2,117$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.6115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,783$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes16c1,339$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0114530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes28c1,298$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6118746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c1,238$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.381811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes11c930.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.92119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes21c824.3$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.79434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No76c544$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.562828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes24c544$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.562133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes20c525.63$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.453132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes17c500.22$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2215054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes10c461.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.234316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c423.84$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.898752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes25c413.5$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10429423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes22c379.2$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.682245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c355.71$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c343.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4213321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c315.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6213735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes23c313.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.023026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c308.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes34c300$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.225572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes15c298.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.729642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes20c289.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0326431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Yes17c289.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes5c285$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.862330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes19c282.22$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.621435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes26c281.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3413635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes21c221.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8528524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes38c204.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes10c169.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.572718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c161.59$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.845757.9%33 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes18c158.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5510544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes28c132.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.526150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes14c120.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.074938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes12c114.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2213820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes38c95.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.212441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes13c77.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0932739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes30c72.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.661546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes22c68.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…a4e9backed Yes19c63.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c52.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffd…f074backed No69c50.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x670c…b1eabacked Yes24c47.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed Yes42c43.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No79c38.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0114337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc63…c6c3backed No79c34.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4e…44b3backed Yes37c33.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x454d…2bf7backed No77c32.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…7d36backed No77c29.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c6…2bafbacked Yes35c28.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-67.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x106e…64a9backed No77c22.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bcb…b296backed Yes50c20.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked No74c15.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.