Token Launches · resolved market
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca84e29ab9dec7ec74fedcb1c8b9565d7faa42e130a77a7c146c8ca72e03972a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 20c | 21,658$4,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,429.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 6c | 6,288$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.31 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 78c | 3,987$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,255$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.68 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 70c | 3,103$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,349$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,989$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,469$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…0728backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 15c | 1,167$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…e021backed Yes | 33c | 1,112$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 14c | 964.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 22c | 848.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 3c | 622$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…fa82backed Yes | 12c | 579.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…a008backed Yes | 18c | 559.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 23c | 550$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…645ebacked Yes | 6c | 541.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 79c | 507.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed Yes | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c64…4255backed No | 75c | 467.34$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 441$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes | 15c | 440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…6ae8backed Yes | 16c | 426.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 20c | 347.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…b56cbacked Yes | 17c | 287.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…80b8backed Yes | 33c | 228.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 191.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…a100backed No | 51c | 182.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…c131backed Yes | 14c | 167.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 18c | 165$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 17c | 136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 34c | 128.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 124$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 25c | 113.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…7339backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd2…f9f9backed Yes | 18c | 93.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 81.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 78.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…4657backed No | 69c | 67.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +133%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…3355backed Yes | 16c | 67.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…1ee0backed Yes | 32c | 62.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…8eaabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…6b0dbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…d923backed No | 52c | 57.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…4616backed Yes | 50c | 51.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 22c | 50.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…c6f5backed Yes | 33c | 43.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…82b5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 29.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tea FDV above $80M one day after launchthis page
- Tea FDV above $100M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $150M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $40M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $500M one day after launchNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.