Token Launches · resolved market
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26cb781190641cf961d7a487ca4abf104ca2b5a29ea28ff884fcf8b5234534b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 78c | 2,715$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.47 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,417$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,018$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…6ae8backed Yes | 12c | 1,709$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 74c | 599.42$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 514.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 11c | 467.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 349.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed Yes | 10c | 335.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…fa82backed Yes | 5c | 305$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 77c | 304.55$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 147.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 9c | 144.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 109.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…4616backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 27c | 89.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 29c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…9c1fbacked No | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 65c | 21.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tea FDV above $100M one day after launchthis page
- Tea FDV above $150M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $40M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $500M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $80M one day after launchNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.