Token Launches · resolved market
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b29921799a950beebbba327b695e638e1acee58893a7300caa12abf07585db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f28…ba03backed No | 48c | 2,846$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,798$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.82 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,364$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 2c | 2,046$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 2c | 2,022$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c64…4255backed No | 60c | 1,986$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 10c | 1,526$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 68c | 1,472$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,240$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 64c | 1,210$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.49 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…fa82backed Yes | 37c | 1,085$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 66c | 1,016$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…0b9bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,008$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…0728backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e1a8backed No | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…a008backed Yes | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…e021backed No | 67c | 857.27$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…d92abacked No | 49c | 786.91$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…fa14backed Yes | 45c | 742.47$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…e31fbacked Yes | 42c | 699.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 635$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 32c | 531.94$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 16c | 512.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.5 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 51c | 507$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.11 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 42c | 462.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked No | 50c | 448.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 48c | 401.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…6ae8backed Yes | 45c | 370.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 35c | 321.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…fe9ebacked No | 15c | 300$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 23c | 242.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…1dbabacked Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 46c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…4657backed No | 31c | 183.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +133%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 58c | 155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 33c | 154.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…f510backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…f923backed Yes | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 137.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked Yes | 48c | 129.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed Yes | 47c | 113.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 54c | 103.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…bb84backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…07c4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…82b5backed Yes | 41c | 95.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 55c | 95.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 46c | 78.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 19c | 78.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…6b0dbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…1ee0backed Yes | 59c | 67.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 52c | 67.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…653fbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked No | 65c | 59.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…cdf4backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 28c | 52.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 46.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 42c | 46.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked No | 66c | 45.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…b4b8backed Yes | 47c | 44.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…c6f5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…1fa0backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…a6e8backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…6f38backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 18.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tea FDV above $40M one day after launchthis page
- Tea FDV above $100M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $150M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $200M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $300M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $400M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $500M one day after launchNo won
- Tea FDV above $80M one day after launchNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.