TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Quiñonezof Moutinho, Quiñonez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$303,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Moutinho17c72,529$12,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,329.9719154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Moutinho17c50,767$8,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,622.722259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Moutinho8c14,090$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.452425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Moutinho15c12,561$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.1116244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Moutinho10c9,680$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.098434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Moutinho17c8,188$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.0135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Moutinho17c7,342$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.8128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Moutinho18c4,933$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8888360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Moutinho18c4,167$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Moutinho15c4,147$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.5215641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Moutinho16c3,102$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Moutinho5c3,009$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Moutinho18c2,999$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.825459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Moutinho17c2,941$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Moutinho14c1,853$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.055642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Moutinho18c1,816$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Moutinho4c1,741$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3120139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Moutinho14c1,547$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.955841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0267backed Moutinho16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404630.4%14 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Moutinho5c1,465$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.337754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Moutinho12c1,211$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Moutinho13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15620837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Moutinho17c1,111$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.874228.6%12 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed Moutinho16c1,067$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.94630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Moutinho10c612.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9822438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Moutinho15c582$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.356450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Moutinho18c527.78$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Moutinho18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Moutinho14c498.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7824847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Moutinho15c471.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.914143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Moutinho18c448.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick61cpaid-76.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Moutinho13c410.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.035139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac8…9aa2backed Moutinho18c388.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…207fbacked Moutinho18c323.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+50.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Moutinho17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Moutinho18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502969%20 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Moutinho18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ca…6a3abacked Moutinho16c269.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Moutinho12c258.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Moutinho16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x239f…9ab2backed Moutinho16c243.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Moutinho5c232.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.726451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Moutinho16c224.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.537862.8%49 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Moutinho18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403040%12 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f25…442cbacked Moutinho15c201.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-58.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Moutinho18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Moutinho17c199.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.662540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4129…ce4fbacked Moutinho24c192.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Moutinho18c176.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7614543.4%63 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Moutinho18c170$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Moutinho16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2414827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Moutinho14c143$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.027251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Moutinho14c138.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1918440.8%75 W · 109 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Moutinho18c122.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Moutinho17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Moutinho16c117$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7226736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b42…cf90backed Moutinho18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Moutinho18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8227…d504backed Moutinho18c109.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Moutinho18c107$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcd…7ab2backed Moutinho15c107$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Moutinho14c102.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Moutinho20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Moutinho18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Moutinho18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189644.8%43 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f87…b6c9backed Moutinho15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63e…d3afbacked Moutinho18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…262bbacked Moutinho16c93.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd360…7f38backed Quiñonez74c92.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f6…b176backed Moutinho18c90.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe160…b6b9backed Moutinho18c88.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614442.4%61 W · 83 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Moutinho18c83.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Moutinho18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Moutinho17c80.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Moutinho18c80.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4619230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7540…9318backed Moutinho18c75.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ea…6f40backed Quiñonez70c72.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8f…3380backed Quiñonez70c72.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x637a…a27cbacked Moutinho18c71.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Moutinho15c66.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f9…0321backed Quiñonez70c66.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Moutinho16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Moutinho18c61.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0513557%77 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a5…7f63backed Moutinho18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db1…78c5backed Moutinho18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Quiñonez71c51.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf26e…5067backed Quiñonez69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.38261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e2d…a9b1backed Quiñonez80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.116258.6%95 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.