TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes (Featherweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Reyesof Silva de Andrade, Reyes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,135 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Reyes70c60,394$42,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,284.3419544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Silva de Andrade31c60,017$18,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,405.054040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Silva de Andrade30c25,075$7,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,622.637245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Reyes69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Silva de Andrade30c11,225$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.1437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Reyes69c10,870$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.578360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Silva de Andrade31c8,203$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.865632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Reyes69c8,000$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,48022259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Reyes69c6,862$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.2214558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Reyes69c6,302$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.6928849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Reyes68c3,688$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.263046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Silva de Andrade30c3,010$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.1326743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Silva de Andrade11c2,998$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5221247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Silva de Andrade27c2,955$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.362425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Silva de Andrade57c2,749$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5805151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Silva de Andrade1c2,695$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.958835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Reyes67c2,330$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.825655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfed2…4671backed Silva de Andrade32c2,246$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7205954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Silva de Andrade33c2,211$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.71844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Silva de Andrade31c2,208$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.47528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Reyes40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9913453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Silva de Andrade60c1,852$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.34669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Silva de Andrade31c1,600$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.989247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Silva de Andrade30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Reyes71c1,441$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.118754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Reyes77c1,335$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.9554056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Reyes68c1,177$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1914643.8%64 W · 82 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Reyes46c1,132$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.2110546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Silva de Andrade32c1,100$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35420837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Reyes41c1,025$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.077251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Reyes68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201580%12 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Silva de Andrade33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Silva de Andrade31c999.94$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9815641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Silva de Andrade31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab6…398dbacked Silva de Andrade31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Silva de Andrade17c875.29$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5436048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Silva de Andrade31c806.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Reyes70c702.97$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.696250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Silva de Andrade32c698.05$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.563933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Reyes44c675$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3785736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff9d…af7cbacked Silva de Andrade16c627.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Reyes69c609.04$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.819154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Silva de Andrade31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18636745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Silva de Andrade32c562.5$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ca…c1d1backed Silva de Andrade3c532.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151850%9 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Silva de Andrade31c520$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.23847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Reyes70c500$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.53177.4%24 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Silva de Andrade31c500$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15752252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Reyes69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15535764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Silva de Andrade27c476.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Reyes69c427$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.459459.6%56 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Reyes69c412.64$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.92742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Silva de Andrade31c400.59$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1811758.1%68 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Reyes40c330$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1983852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Silva de Andrade31c325$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Silva de Andrade31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004254.8%23 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed Reyes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Reyes68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1226569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Silva de Andrade16c283.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Silva de Andrade17c274.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.759638.5%37 W · 59 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Reyes44c270$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.43246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Reyes42c245$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.17154.9%39 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Silva de Andrade55c241.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8228143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed Silva de Andrade32c221.75$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2d…a9b1backed Silva de Andrade27c219.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4916258.6%95 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64ad…41d5backed Silva de Andrade23c217.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0f4…5107backed Reyes71c210.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.071883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Reyes71c183.1$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.12969%20 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cce…13ffbacked Silva de Andrade32c162$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.843857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Reyes47c149.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6227448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Reyes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.937040%28 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb969…089ebacked Reyes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Reyes69c144$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Reyes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.858950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Reyes70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429644.8%43 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d86…eeefbacked Reyes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Silva de Andrade42c134.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5622438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Silva de Andrade31c127.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2231855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Reyes69c123.6$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.932951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Reyes77c123.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0137854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Reyes68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.48356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked Reyes66c114.92$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.672972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Reyes70c114.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.299558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…58e9backed Silva de Andrade27c112.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea51…11dfbacked Reyes68c110$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f15…3a7dbacked Reyes69c108.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.92268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Reyes69c101.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Reyes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3124862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked Silva de Andrade31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Silva de Andrade32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3228743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac8…9aa2backed Reyes71c91.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Silva de Andrade32c89.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5711761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Silva de Andrade32c86.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7922342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x518b…0b4bbacked Reyes68c85.38$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.389958.6%58 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56a…e0e7backed Silva de Andrade60c83.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc069…3f76backed Silva de Andrade42c81.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Reyes68c79.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.412673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+46.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x323e…3dfabacked Reyes68c73.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.382842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c6…f4e2backed Reyes68c73.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1522568.9%155 W · 70 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790d…608fbacked Silva de Andrade33c70.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.