TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,351 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Wizards50c103,406$51,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,736.8232653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic50c29,576$14,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,787.9187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Magic50c17,546$8,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,77334854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Magic50c16,509$8,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,254.3317550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Wizards50c15,000$7,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,502.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards49c13,469$6,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,866.681,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic51c12,044$6,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,087.669,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards50c10,004$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,002.531,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Wizards50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1343…c764backed Magic50c9,616$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,808560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Magic50c9,471$4,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,73618749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic50c8,704$4,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,355.464,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Wizards50c8,003$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002.91,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69eb…fa92backed Magic50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards51c7,658$3,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.554,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051f…efd3backed Magic50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Magic51c5,733$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.8587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic51c5,375$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Magic50c4,896$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44819445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic50c4,287$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Magic51c3,947$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.8334851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Magic52c2,791$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.0724151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7e…5fd6backed Wizards45c2,452$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic52c2,417$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.323,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea66…edadbacked Wizards45c2,366$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Wizards50c2,302$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.1364944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd4…aec0backed Magic55c2,158$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e1…788fbacked Wizards45c2,155$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d20…4e6ebacked Wizards45c2,127$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa54a…6a0ebacked Magic55c2,067$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b51…7af7backed Magic55c2,026$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Wizards48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0409742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Magic50c2,000$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.9214046.4%65 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Wizards50c1,997$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.292737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Magic50c1,992$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.8748546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Magic51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x392d…1832backed Magic55c1,956$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d3…f2e4backed Magic55c1,953$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbda…7e8cbacked Wizards45c1,953$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a54…6f2fbacked Magic55c1,894$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb570…f9b9backed Magic55c1,699$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8c…044fbacked Wizards45c1,686$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…537bbacked Magic55c1,675$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6173…5ee8backed Magic55c1,666$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e5…4752backed Wizards45c1,608$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee95…b346backed Wizards45c1,608$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Magic51c1,605$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.191,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x020d…b81fbacked Magic55c1,600$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic51c1,580$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.112,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de8…8899backed Magic55c1,566$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a0a…ba32backed Wizards45c1,549$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic50c1,525$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.048,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Wizards53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b5…4324backed Wizards45c1,436$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5242…55ecbacked Wizards45c1,432$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic53c1,395$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.662,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic50c1,297$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.154,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Magic49c1,274$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.3813128.2%37 W · 94 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic50c1,048$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.415,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards57c1,040$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.772,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.124050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Wizards50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Magic52c799.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.9951753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Magic65c696.43$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.1716162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Wizards49c607.27$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.131,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Magic51c600$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic52c596.37$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards51c577.42$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.853,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards50c500$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.673,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Magic51c477.46$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2923348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Magic65c457.89$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5114456.3%81 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic49c456.84$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.113,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Wizards48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Magic51c392.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Magic50c375.7$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8518241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Magic50c326.14$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0914634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Magic51c308.12$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8351438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic50c305.02$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.512,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Magic47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419050%45 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Magic51c297.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.331,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Magic52c276.81$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.944942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1679…c6bcbacked Magic55c257$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards49c254$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.541,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic53c253.37$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.742,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Magic57c244.8$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.694161%25 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a5…7759backed Magic53c218.77$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.023855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…4216backed Wizards47c211.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1e…63bbbacked Magic51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.814940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Magic50c199.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.962657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Magic48c196.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.452661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Magic54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010953.2%58 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cee…78abbacked Wizards48c173$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45bf…c932backed Wizards48c167$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic52c147.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.843,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wizards49c147.25$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.652,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a55…bf56backed Wizards45c145$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Magic51c144.68$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6457650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc633…415abacked Magic51c141.51$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.034751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…e7b5backed Wizards50c130.51$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3915031.3%47 W · 103 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Magic61c122.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1476653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.