TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Wizards, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,657 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Wizards21c12,777$2,712 inLost-$2,712.041,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards22c9,720$2,138 inLost-$2,138.381,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic79c9,700$7,663 inWon+$2,0371,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Magic78c5,128$4,000 inWon+$1,128.2126648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b11…0918backed Magic78c4,550$3,549 inWon+$1,001666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic78c2,897$2,260 inWon+$637.182,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Wizards23c173.91$40 inLost-$407222.2%16 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wizards13c140.31$18 inLost-$18.21,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Magic79c126.58$100 inWon+$26.5864944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic77c125.77$97 inWon+$28.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Wizards21c47.17$10 inLost-$10.1330845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Magic79c22.08$17 inWon+$4.5813744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Magic79c20$16 inWon+$4.26053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed Magic79c16$13 inWon+$3.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.