TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trae Young: Points O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,015 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5302…0a6fbacked Yes57c1,515$864 inWon+$651.5311957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6d…71b4backed No43c465.12$200 inLost-$2003141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed No43c372.09$160 inLost-$16052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No43c232.56$100 inLost-$1001,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked No43c232.56$100 inLost-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No42c200$85 inLost-$84.62,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes60c139$83 inWon+$562846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf48e…1e01backed No40c80$32 inLost-$3210444.2%46 W · 58 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked No43c46$20 inLost-$19.7821937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes58c44.93$26 inWon+$18.874,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked No43c41.86$18 inLost-$1819748.2%95 W · 102 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes58c27.5$16 inWon+$11.551,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a6…a36cbacked Yes74c23.16$17 inWon+$6.111464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Yes61c17.92$11 inWon+$7.0719245.3%87 W · 105 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.