TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,496 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic48c326,476$156,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,671.3187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wizards52c180,396$93,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,590.3266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards52c106,912$55,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,317.664,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards52c85,242$44,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,588.31,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic48c75,000$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,999.972,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards51c19,455$9,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,541.821,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Wizards52c7,692$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.311,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Magic47c7,424$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards49c6,518$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,324.674,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b11…0918backed Wizards52c6,300$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards51c6,113$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.636,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0601,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Wizards64c5,163$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.5856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Wizards51c5,000$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Wizards52c3,854$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.4124252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.581,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Magic51c3,721$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.732,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Wizards52c3,333$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.8414753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d82…f65fbacked Magic54c3,255$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeebd…e0d6backed Magic48c3,067$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards52c2,700$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.183,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2162…1378backed Magic48c2,666$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3932…5699backed Wizards46c2,655$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcd…e60dbacked Magic54c2,544$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42f5…d57fbacked Wizards52c2,466$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f06…ab87backed Wizards46c2,423$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Magic50c2,407$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.1713128.2%37 W · 94 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Magic47c2,354$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1048748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x541a…5e45backed Wizards52c2,323$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda66…1244backed Wizards49c2,255$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274a…a4d6backed Magic48c2,223$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5604…4896backed Wizards52c2,222$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb2…490ebacked Magic54c2,200$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…9b7ebacked Magic51c2,185$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Magic47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69eb…fa92backed Magic47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e2c…5992backed Magic51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards53c2,094$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.251,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic40c2,062$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.825,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d6…f864backed Magic51c2,048$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9bd…5a6fbacked Magic48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77a7…3163backed Magic48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea4…4d51backed Wizards46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd621…c4d4backed Wizards46c1,999$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a4…5e5abacked Wizards49c1,999$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb990…c28ebacked Magic51c1,997$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Magic48c1,989$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.9323348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb2…6671backed Wizards52c1,966$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Magic52c1,929$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.321,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8de…7f99backed Magic51c1,890$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5db…ace4backed Wizards49c1,888$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbdf…23abbacked Magic54c1,866$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd315…762bbacked Wizards46c1,866$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c88dbacked Magic48c1,856$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Magic47c1,854$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.6139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…cb15backed Wizards52c1,816$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3812…966ebacked Wizards49c1,814$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2538…e8b1backed Wizards52c1,800$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f48…53a8backed Magic48c1,800$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…2f88backed Magic48c1,799$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x693c…c1b5backed Magic48c1,788$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3831…8dfebacked Magic48c1,756$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309e…9a86backed Wizards52c1,739$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb6…d638backed Wizards52c1,723$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94c4…d09fbacked Magic51c1,688$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ecf…2877backed Magic48c1,688$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c5…e49fbacked Magic48c1,666$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78eb…06d9backed Wizards49c1,666$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090f…17b7backed Magic51c1,659$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards50c1,650$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.612,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5d3…4c49backed Magic51c1,599$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4525…f10cbacked Wizards49c1,588$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ce…e97dbacked Wizards49c1,588$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2520…7a0ebacked Wizards49c1,588$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa531…75babacked Wizards46c1,566$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b8…daf1backed Magic51c1,566$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fd2…6028backed Wizards49c1,522$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c81…8db0backed Magic51c1,511$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Wizards57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Wizards54c1,500$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.6413954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e5…e9c3backed Wizards49c1,488$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d4…1d10backed Wizards49c1,463$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x749e…252ebacked Wizards49c1,455$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f0a…7fcdbacked Magic51c1,401$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc9…37e1backed Magic54c1,394$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Magic47c1,342$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.7217953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3038…da8cbacked Magic54c1,250$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Magic48c1,177$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.6345151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b31…6d9dbacked Wizards52c1,111$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…5eeabacked Wizards52c1,055$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f3…7848backed Wizards52c1,055$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf464…08a9backed Wizards52c1,046$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c3a…b65cbacked Wizards52c1,025$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcae…239ebacked Wizards52c1,023$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5da…7ee2backed Wizards52c1,010$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Magic43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic48c949.26$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Magic46c943.6$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6614634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic47c941.97$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.