NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1f567da76a859f078aff3e33d05f18ee2f870252e230ae3de526f2d333e479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 36c | 668.62$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.82 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…d92ebacked Over | 62c | 455.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 61c | 421.68$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 237.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 237.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 34c | 185.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 177$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cabcbacked Under | 46c | 156.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 69c | 148.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 38c | 139.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 134$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 43c | 107.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 57c | 107.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 37c | 94.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed Over | 64c | 78.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 63c | 70.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 37c | 66.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Under | 41c | 65.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 47.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e4…be2ebacked Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-17.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-18.5)Wizards won
- Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Trae Young: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.