TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Magic (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,756 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4435…0840backed Magic51c9,865$5,000 inLost-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wizards51c9,267$4,726 inWon+$4,541.011,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Wizards51c5,000$2,550 inWon+$2,45077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Magic49c4,970$2,435 inLost-$2,435.337747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Magic50c4,958$2,500 inLost-$2,5009547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards45c2,026$922 inWon+$1,104.195,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards47c1,485$698 inWon+$787.372,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Wizards51c941.24$480 inWon+$461.2124050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Magic54c745.75$402 inLost-$4028647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Wizards46c715.48$329 inWon+$386.4726353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x108b…ecdabacked Wizards52c639.44$333 inWon+$306.932740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Wizards51c392.15$200 inWon+$192.1518147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Wizards50c269.12$134 inWon+$135.5921743.8%95 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Wizards51c245.09$125 inWon+$120.0933748.1%162 W · 175 L-1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Wizards52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3115744.6%70 W · 87 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1277backed Wizards14c124.12$17 inWon+$106.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+149.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Wizards50c63.22$32 inWon+$31.6164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Magic54c40$21 inLost-$21.4714452.1%75 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed Magic51c34$17 inLost-$17.284837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.