TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,986 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Wizards53c44,952$23,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,145.0832653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…ae3abacked Magic49c12,245$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Magic44c11,460$5,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,042.2524744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Wizards51c11,029$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,404.1717250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Magic47c10,002$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.9412045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic47c9,712$4,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,564.444,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards55c9,651$5,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,364.269,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Wizards51c9,318$4,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.7945850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards49c7,925$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,072.771,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Magic48c6,785$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.5670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic48c4,846$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Magic47c4,831$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.5156646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…a6c5backed Magic49c2,757$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3515046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards53c2,566$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.874,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Magic47c2,507$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.130446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Magic47c2,454$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.382,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Magic47c2,300$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0831,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Magic49c2,269$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1125147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic47c2,213$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.026,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Magic47c2,021$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9922643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic46c1,951$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Magic45c1,370$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.7314634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards54c1,300$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.53,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Magic46c1,168$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2845151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic48c1,021$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4894,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Magic47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47031455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Wizards51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Wizards51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards51c938.36$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.82,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic47c930.06$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.973,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic47c903$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.411,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Wizards58c862.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.5527158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Wizards57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.253040%12 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Magic49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Magic49c530$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1523435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic50c426.8$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.752,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic57c418.04$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.112,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Magic47c413.65$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19432450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic47c394.31$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.22,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Magic45c356.23$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Magic45c355.86$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7123348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Magic45c346.64$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.999352.7%49 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a8…2964backed Magic44c329.02$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.482466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Magic44c319.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Magic45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13550239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Magic48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12045542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Magic45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic51c221.82$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.263,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Magic45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9923256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Magic45c213$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6954443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a43…5e84backed Magic47c202$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Magic47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9424428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Wizards57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.261957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards55c176.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.61,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Wizards57c176.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1618256.6%103 W · 79 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb0…cca5backed Magic46c164$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Magic44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2456547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa615…0344backed Magic46c149.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic47c149$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.032,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac94…e414backed Magic45c140.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.113234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb524…ac78backed Magic46c138$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Magic53c129$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3754351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Wizards56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5533554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Magic47c114$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5862541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Magic44c113.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…ec19backed Magic49c112.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5513748.2%66 W · 71 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Magic49c101.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8351438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Magic49c100.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4913843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Magic45c95.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9576552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Magic47c93.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1413554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Magic56c89.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Wizards56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2961056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Magic45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029844%131 W · 167 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Magic45c88.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.816543.6%72 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Magic46c85.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3721349.3%105 W · 108 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Magic45c77.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3555444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Magic48c71.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9830151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Magic46c70.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.539943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Magic48c70.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3525655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Wizards52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.654951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdc…3a17backed Wizards54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0848…1aeebacked Wizards54c69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x855c…fa95backed Magic46c66.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.439051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9f…f70abacked Wizards56c65.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Wizards55c62.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Magic44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.428943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Magic47c57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7946447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f40…5401backed Wizards52c56.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.285949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Magic45c55.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532654.3%177 W · 149 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Magic46c49.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6914046.4%65 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d2…6a7fbacked Wizards54c48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Magic47c46.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6750948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Magic48c43.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2148739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Wizards46c42.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.321,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Magic47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012841.4%53 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Magic48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed Magic49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Wizards48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Wizards63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Wizards57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2437253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.