NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x788e2e43efedeacf22bbf14cc3a7866df6e512619f0fd2c0dd90d7af0dcaa740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 52c | 24,474$12,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,747.34 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 48c | 13,608$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500.16 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 7,011$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 4,266$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.48 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 2,894$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 2,570$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 2,099$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.59 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 2,076$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.07 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 1,391$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.68 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 1,133$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.57 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 1,069$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.2 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 698.17$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 55c | 671$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.32 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 607.48$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.71 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…d92ebacked Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 36c | 364.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 364$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 49c | 349.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 45c | 327.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 38c | 281.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.42 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…0426backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 206.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 47c | 188.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 48c | 179.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 47c | 179.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 53c | 168.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9685…718ebacked Over | 55c | 164.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 149.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 57c | 138.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 114.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…e42cbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 99.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 41c | 85.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 71.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 56c | 70.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 41c | 69.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 69.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 67.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Over | 77c | 64.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 56c | 58.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Under | 31c | 55.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 59c | 43.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 39.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc89…3015backed Over | 53c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 308 | 40.9%126 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-17.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Magic (-18.5)Wizards won
- Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Trae Young: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.