NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 232.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59615b3f44bb427895d1c248570c739bdf262c2f9d1669e5d6dccf058c1fcb9c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,364 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	48c	4,656$2,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,235.92	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Under	49c	4,437$2,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,188.03	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	4,010$2,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,995.33	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	53c	3,619$1,918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,701.19	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace8…4624backed Under	49c	2,402$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174.3	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.1wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3f9…4db4backed Over	53c	2,211$1,172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over	52c	2,198$1,151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.24	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03a…59c2backed Over	53c	2,075$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$975.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97e4…0d6bbacked Under	47c	2,040$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…d903backed Over	53c	1,773$941 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$831.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0f…1d65backed Under	47c	1,669$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x724a…3111backed Over	53c	1,572$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.84	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0c…1cc0backed Under	47c	1,526$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b60…2244backed Over	53c	1,361$721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	52cpaid	+94.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffbe…acd0backed Under	47c	1,322$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	52c	1,314$683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.02	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe0…048bbacked Over	53c	1,312$695 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.64	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	49c	1,249$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$633.78	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b3…d2acbacked Over	53c	1,239$657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.33	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65b9…cdbdbacked Under	47c	1,211$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	42c	1,164$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.13	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab4…d648backed Under	47c	1,151$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.1	161	48.4%78 W · 83 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ac…014dbacked Under	47c	912$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f94…aabebacked Over	53c	901$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.47	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd1…5975backed Under	47c	855$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8302…8c25backed Over	53c	805$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.35	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	52cpaid	+94.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedad…6725backed Under	47c	721$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over	52c	622.56$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.83	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	537.47$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.59	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad39…df11backed Under	47c	536$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4875…803bbacked Under	47c	511$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	47c	469.62$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.72	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.71	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	47c	399.27$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.45	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa950…d92ebacked Over	57c	398.83$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.5	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	47c	362$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.31	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4d…919bbacked Under	47c	332$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a3…aab2backed Under	47c	325$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under	44c	320$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.48	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x625d…150ebacked Under	47c	308$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	43c	302.08$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.07	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over	48c	292.38$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.04	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	45c	275.94$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.38	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	43c	229.55$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.62	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	52c	199.99$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	50c	181.57$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.92	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1c…14dfbacked Over	53c	170$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	44c	160$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.24	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3f…179dbacked Under	46c	159$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.14	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Over	55c	135.05$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.95	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+10.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06c2…022dbacked Under	48c	134.28$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.32	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Under	44c	128.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Under	50c	123.08$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	203	50.2%102 W · 101 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Over	61c	116.25$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.34	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over	57c	113.17$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.19	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec91…c229backed Under	50c	103$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.5	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	56c	101.22$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.3	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over	52c	100.19$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.19	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under	49c	83.75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x102b…b157backed Over	54c	73$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.65	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+76.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	55c	70.17$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.82	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9b…b167backed Over	49c	62.41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.85	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over	52c	58.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over	54c	53$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.38	454	45.4%206 W · 248 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over	60c	51.34$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.62	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Over	54c	50.63$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.29	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Under	46c	50.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over	55c	49.1$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over	56c	46.68$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.54	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e4…e646backed Over	53c	45$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.19	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Under	49c	41.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2416…fc14backed Over	53c	41$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.31	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+31%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	370	37.3%138 W · 232 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	57c	39.15$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over	55c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Under	40c	35.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	122	27%33 W · 89 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over	56c	27.38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	142	64.8%92 W · 50 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	42c	25.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Over	49c	24.48$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa36f…dbcfbacked Under	51c	24.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+50%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Under	45c	23.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	109	51.4%56 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Under	48c	22.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	201	40.3%81 W · 120 L	-8.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	59c	20.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 232.5this page
1H Spread: Magic (-8.5)Wizards won
Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5No won
Spread: Magic (-12.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-13.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-14.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-15.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-16.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-17.5)Wizards won
Spread: Magic (-18.5)Wizards won
Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Trae Young: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 232.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event