TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$882,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $882,174 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Grizzlies49c388,338$189,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189,468.9987451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Mavericks51c150,000$76,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,50026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks51c99,216$50,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,616.072,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies47c98,395$46,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,660.2972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks53c69,283$36,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,663.51,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks52c45,756$23,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,127.3259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Grizzlies47c45,054$21,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,178.531,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Mavericks52c31,463$16,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,955.1834851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies46c27,555$12,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,675.2887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks52c27,470$14,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,322.474,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Mavericks52c25,109$13,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,052.3230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Grizzlies48c20,837$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks53c19,261$10,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,960.051,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b6…3eeebacked Mavericks52c18,998$9,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,118.83046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3f…fdd5backed Mavericks52c18,783$9,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,015.845100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8c6…3e08backed Mavericks52c15,189$7,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,291.081080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Mavericks54c15,000$8,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,902.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x719b…0b07backed Mavericks52c12,759$6,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,124.51785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+71.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks52c11,603$6,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,574.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b6…afbdbacked Mavericks52c10,467$5,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,024.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks54c9,912$5,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.642,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mavericks52c9,282$4,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.361,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Grizzlies46c9,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,14058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6da…8286backed Mavericks52c8,837$4,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks51c8,333$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,083.331,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb805…29d6backed Mavericks52c7,744$4,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Mavericks56c7,540$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,317.6417251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Mavericks53c7,150$3,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.4911653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b8…679dbacked Mavericks52c6,892$3,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+69.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies45c6,052$2,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,722.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8802,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mavericks54c5,544$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.21,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…cbf3backed Mavericks52c5,434$2,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c3…f831backed Mavericks52c5,189$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Mavericks52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40029650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies47c5,000$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.411,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Mavericks54c4,678$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.571,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Mavericks52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Mavericks52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks53c3,792$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.451,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6976…2788backed Mavericks52c3,661$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fe…9807backed Mavericks52c3,565$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Mavericks51c3,333$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.1714753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Grizzlies47c3,286$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.2628554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Mavericks52c3,200$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.627546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Grizzlies31c2,845$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.612937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Mavericks51c2,704$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9212045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks62c2,685$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.313,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks54c2,577$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.6164944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x856e…9798backed Grizzlies48c2,479$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks53c2,472$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.414,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a89…c46abacked Grizzlies48c2,442$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mavericks53c2,421$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.871,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa95b…6adabacked Grizzlies48c2,353$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d55…ed24backed Grizzlies48c2,342$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d16…1548backed Grizzlies48c2,294$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7196…6037backed Grizzlies48c2,236$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x104b…d1c4backed Grizzlies48c2,209$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4083…983abacked Grizzlies48c2,110$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc694…b9a1backed Grizzlies48c2,102$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c0…7c0fbacked Mavericks52c2,088$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f3…ac1cbacked Grizzlies48c2,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Grizzlies49c1,800$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.6233146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304c…87ecbacked Grizzlies48c1,724$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96fb…3a4cbacked Grizzlies48c1,714$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2b…373ebacked Grizzlies48c1,684$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks54c1,666$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.992,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…c1b0backed Grizzlies48c1,651$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44d7…9592backed Grizzlies48c1,638$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f2…5b98backed Grizzlies48c1,635$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c9…2ea4backed Grizzlies48c1,629$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752c…78f1backed Grizzlies48c1,624$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9406…dac2backed Grizzlies48c1,623$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.04650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e08…aa00backed Grizzlies48c1,588$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6977…c751backed Grizzlies48c1,566$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…0ba2backed Grizzlies48c1,564$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf2…ad4cbacked Grizzlies48c1,550$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7686…93f4backed Grizzlies48c1,518$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca6…2bedbacked Grizzlies48c1,515$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Mavericks53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7056352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Mavericks54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.3113954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1982…9977backed Grizzlies48c1,494$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bdb…e072backed Grizzlies48c1,482$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9261…a2c4backed Grizzlies48c1,435$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d6…2c47backed Grizzlies48c1,413$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f8…07b4backed Grizzlies48c1,394$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Grizzlies37c1,382$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.2251438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1a…7ddabacked Grizzlies48c1,380$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52df…6254backed Grizzlies48c1,358$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…a430backed Grizzlies48c1,355$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeec…008fbacked Grizzlies48c1,348$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…580fbacked Grizzlies48c1,341$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1428…c0c9backed Grizzlies48c1,335$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x283c…92b8backed Grizzlies48c1,316$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…3428backed Grizzlies48c1,301$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Mavericks53c1,284$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.765446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a0…623bbacked Grizzlies48c1,283$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.