TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,252 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,499.771,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Over53c14,438$7,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,651.5843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd860…aa2cbacked Under51c8,304$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,068.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under47c7,500$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69eb…fa92backed Under51c5,883$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,883.071233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under51c4,275$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.238750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under49c2,379$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.716,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c2,237$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over49c2,082$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.751,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c1,529$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c1,211$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.222,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under47c836$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.0834851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under54c745.81$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.943,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c734.19$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Over41c700$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.153250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c593.96$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.044,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under49c519.44$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.393,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c515.34$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.673,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Over6c469.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3930224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over35c398.38$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under50c394$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19752052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15028348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over47c291.66$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.982,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over40c268.18$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.481,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under51c244.9$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12045542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Under50c200.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.44438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Over24c183.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2565542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over46c154.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.781,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Over51c147.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7723348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2534854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under76c132.44$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7965872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over43c128.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6788057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under48c125.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.215,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c124.86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.242,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Under61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.823649.2%116 W · 120 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over13c108.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Under51c104.17$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8420350.2%102 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Over29c76.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1711826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over49c74.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2995047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3a…5c97backed Under61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.45451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Under51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.825942.4%25 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over44c57.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.993,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Over49c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9532148.3%155 W · 166 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over50c53.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.941,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under55c52.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.722,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under51c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.991,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Under48c50.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.419434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9be6…b8b2backed Under68c44.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.223262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2227138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Over51c36.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.725651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over35c33.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5816867.3%113 W · 55 L+13.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over50c32.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4139943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under51c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2246447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df0…7eb8backed Under67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.853961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over51c25.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7567248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fe…0289backed Under58c24.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.