NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5789aba83a551e22976e595049d578d823211a27d8a9b049ca23549e798dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,499.77 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 53c | 14,438$7,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,651.58 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…aa2cbacked Under | 51c | 8,304$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,068.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…fa92backed Under | 51c | 5,883$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,883.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 51c | 4,275$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.2 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 2,379$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.71 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 2,237$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.06 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 49c | 2,082$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.75 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 1,529$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 1,211$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.22 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 47c | 836$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.08 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 745.81$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.94 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 734.19$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 41c | 700$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 593.96$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 519.44$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 515.34$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Over | 6c | 469.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 398.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 50c | 394$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 291.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 40c | 268.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 51c | 244.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Under | 50c | 200.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 24c | 183.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 46c | 154.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 51c | 147.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 76c | 132.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 43c | 128.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 125.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 124.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 13c | 108.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 51c | 104.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 29c | 76.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 74.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 57.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 50c | 53.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 52.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 48c | 50.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Under | 68c | 44.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 51c | 36.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 35c | 33.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 50c | 32.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 51c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…0289backed Under | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Cam Spencer: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Cam Spencer: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. GrizzliesMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.