TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,125 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies52c99,622$51,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,803.6772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks49c91,860$45,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,519.041,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Grizzlies51c34,291$17,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,487.321,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Mavericks48c34,265$16,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,817.86651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Mavericks48c16,850$8,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,763.724045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies51c15,123$7,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,729.854,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies50c9,000$4,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,529.631,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Grizzlies50c8,340$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,17038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Mavericks48c8,185$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.4220948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Mavericks48c7,643$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,974.3631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe80…0784backed Mavericks48c5,925$2,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0811020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Grizzlies51c5,870$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99214245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Grizzlies50c5,740$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Mavericks48c5,700$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9643857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Mavericks48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.3310553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Grizzlies50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Mavericks48c4,160$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.228554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Mavericks48c4,000$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Grizzlies51c2,868$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.6823348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Grizzlies50c2,800$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Mavericks49c2,773$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.9170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Grizzlies50c2,564$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2829952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Mavericks49c2,410$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.731551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.991,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Grizzlies52c1,569$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks49c1,363$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.79,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6502,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…3becbacked Grizzlies53c1,090$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Grizzlies51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Mavericks49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Grizzlies51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51012740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Mavericks50c1,000$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50162948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Mavericks53c944.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.0659140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies47c846.57$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks48c816$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.326,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Mavericks47c750.96$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.0116953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Grizzlies50c711.95$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.9858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies40c696.82$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Mavericks50c600.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.731,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Grizzlies51c600$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Mavericks48c544.17$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9718241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4db9…14f5backed Mavericks50c502.73$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.7310235.3%36 W · 66 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Grizzlies51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Grizzlies51c406.74$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4419434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Grizzlies51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.811,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies50c351.17$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.583,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies51c330.93$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.624,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks49c262.7$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.983,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Grizzlies53c261.42$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2933554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Mavericks50c255.87$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Grizzlies43c226.18$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2666645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks49c212.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.492,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Mavericks49c204.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.537852.9%200 W · 178 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Mavericks49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0897049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…4216backed Grizzlies50c200.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Mavericks50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.211840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Grizzlies51c189.71$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.641,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Mavericks49c159.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.431,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Grizzlies51c159.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2668542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Grizzlies53c151.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Grizzlies51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.559650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks57c147.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.242,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Mavericks49c140.62$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3915752.2%82 W · 75 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Mavericks50c131$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.554351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Grizzlies54c130.34$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021743.8%95 W · 122 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Grizzlies53c128.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6823143.3%100 W · 131 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Mavericks48c116.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9111943.7%52 W · 67 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grizzlies40c101.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.742,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Grizzlies40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9923246.1%107 W · 125 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies53c95.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.152,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…a40bbacked Grizzlies53c94.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014555.2%80 W · 65 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Grizzlies53c92.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0423349.4%115 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Mavericks50c88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0911451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Mavericks50c85.66$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9248751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb4…48e3backed Grizzlies53c85.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515547.1%73 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Grizzlies53c84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5233146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Mavericks50c83.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.959242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Grizzlies26c81.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9211826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Mavericks48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.637549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Mavericks50c78.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.167443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Grizzlies51c78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.785345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks48c74.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.551,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Grizzlies53c70.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4351438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Grizzlies53c66.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3535844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Grizzlies53c64.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3450648%243 W · 263 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Mavericks49c61.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.356256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Grizzlies52c57.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033249.7%165 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Mavericks49c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5695260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Grizzlies40c55.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.321,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Grizzlies51c49.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e92…7e9fbacked Grizzlies52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Grizzlies44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.688057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd47a…4e85backed Mavericks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Grizzlies53c37.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013947.5%66 W · 73 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Mavericks49c35.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9650648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Mavericks50c31.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48bf…0074backed Grizzlies53c29.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.841560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Mavericks51c29.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6843647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Grizzlies51c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6723453%124 W · 110 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked Mavericks48c26.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.847145.1%32 W · 39 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.