TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,547 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5302…0a6fbacked Yes58c999.99$580 inWon+$42011957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked No42c826.24$343 inLost-$343.2143453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed No42c465$195 inLost-$195.354246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes59c245$145 inWon+$100.4519434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8488…af1ebacked Yes75c245$184 inWon+$61.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a7…aba0backed Yes75c229$172 inWon+$57.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f7…51bfbacked Yes75c217$163 inWon+$54.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…e2dbbacked Yes75c212$159 inWon+$531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x870b…ed81backed No25c195$49 inLost-$48.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes58c188.44$110 inWon+$78.334,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f55…2744backed No25c176$44 inLost-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f4…bba6backed Yes75c174$131 inWon+$43.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1693…e5ebbacked No25c170$43 inLost-$42.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abb…cf1cbacked Yes75c166$125 inWon+$41.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4f…d985backed No25c159$40 inLost-$39.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42a…c156backed No25c157$39 inLost-$39.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd3…2e8ebacked Yes75c156$117 inWon+$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1697…ed32backed No25c149$37 inLost-$37.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…58dcbacked No25c146$37 inLost-$36.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked No42c137$58 inLost-$57.5421937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41b4…01f1backed No25c134$34 inLost-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea3…78eabacked No25c108$27 inLost-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e76…9e6ebacked No25c89.9$22 inLost-$22.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bae…0f23backed Yes69c85$59 inWon+$26.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No39c64.1$25 inLost-$251,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes59c42$25 inWon+$17.221,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.