TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Pat vs. Frye Jr. (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patof Pat, Frye Jr.
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,787 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Frye Jr.20c13,135$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.0429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Frye Jr.38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.995440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Pat62c6,445$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.164072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Frye Jr.2c5,478$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7510522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Frye Jr.32c5,264$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.827233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Pat61c4,845$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.361050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Pat63c3,316$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.091060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Frye Jr.38c3,230$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.949636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4db0…d3eabacked Frye Jr.39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1702035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Frye Jr.2c2,896$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5618145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pat64c1,602$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.4621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Frye Jr.39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5852040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Frye Jr.3c1,342$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2530039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Pat61c1,058$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.55988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+37.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Frye Jr.42c1,028$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.8117850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Pat61c1,000$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.876060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Pat64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.427843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Pat59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41017851.7%92 W · 86 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Frye Jr.37c849.06$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.1524256.2%136 W · 106 L+20.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Frye Jr.36c736.78$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2433253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Frye Jr.38c653.42$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.328849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a2…b10bbacked Frye Jr.16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Pat60c596.13$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0917055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Pat63c569.76$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6115641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Frye Jr.39c557.31$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3520933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Frye Jr.39c556.41$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21726140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Frye Jr.24c551.66$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8820139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Pat56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Frye Jr.36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14490553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Pat61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Frye Jr.30c382.18$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1733132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Frye Jr.16c375$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Pat63c345.92$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.995149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Frye Jr.44c341.04$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pat61c265.38$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Frye Jr.39c256.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Frye Jr.39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Frye Jr.40c247.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Frye Jr.16c213.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.067647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Frye Jr.10c209.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.01219.5%2 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-83.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Frye Jr.38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7648749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Frye Jr.21c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4313636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02dc…ef17backed Frye Jr.39c184.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Pat80c181.64$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.335232.7%17 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Pat62c181.16$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5613267.4%89 W · 43 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Frye Jr.36c179.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.710928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Frye Jr.37c178.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5823537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b2…5098backed Pat61c169.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Pat62c148.39$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.395356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc028…c7abbacked Frye Jr.38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38e…0b87backed Frye Jr.39c130.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f2…802abacked Frye Jr.39c128.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Frye Jr.47c121.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4712449.2%61 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x980c…74cebacked Pat62c120.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.974151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Pat60c118.87$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5516247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e4…c797backed Frye Jr.39c110.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Frye Jr.24c105.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Frye Jr.17c100.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.578840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed Frye Jr.12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Frye Jr.40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Pat61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Pat62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.779558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Frye Jr.37c83.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9212446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Frye Jr.41c81.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.68356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Pat63c68.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.253834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f0…8cdbbacked Frye Jr.41c61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Pat62c60.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237671.1%54 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed Pat63c52.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Frye Jr.39c50.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.759450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Frye Jr.39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.516736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Frye Jr.41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.519152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x74f4…d0f6backed Pat61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.181776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Frye Jr.41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206243.5%27 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a64…b5a9backed Frye Jr.41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b69…c635backed Pat59c46.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Pat80c41.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2513450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Frye Jr.39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Pat61c35.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.910451.9%54 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Pat59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.96569.2%45 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9904…c9b1backed Pat61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Frye Jr.38c32.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4219418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe615…6819backed Pat62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2615062.7%94 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Pat62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.267940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Pat61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.483745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Frye Jr.47c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.574027.5%11 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbda7…3e66backed Frye Jr.39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77350.7%37 W · 36 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Pat62c24.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Pat60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810850%54 W · 54 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Pat61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.824261.6%149 W · 93 L+17.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Pat61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…87b0backed Pat61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc82f…a08bbacked Pat61c18.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.