MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa46ab5c97810c361fd5169a77f523fc79c86825e1de421010432b37509e8959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Japanof Japan, Czechia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $641,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $613,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Czechia | 1c | 108,620$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.19 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Czechia | 3c | 64,171$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.63 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Czechia | 1c | 55,461$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…16dbbacked Czechia | 2c | 48,341$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +413.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Czechia | 1c | 37,049$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Czechia | 2c | 30,729$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…6eb7backed Czechia | 0c | 22,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Czechia | 2c | 17,330$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…02a3backed Czechia | 0c | 11,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Czechia | 0c | 10,745$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Czechia | 1c | 10,230$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Czechia | 2c | 7,150$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…2b51backed Czechia | 9c | 4,812$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Czechia | 1c | 4,756$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Czechia | 2c | 4,570$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Czechia | 2c | 4,193$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…c5cbbacked Czechia | 2c | 3,400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…8fafbacked Czechia | 1c | 3,342$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Czechia | 2c | 3,292$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Czechia | 2c | 2,620$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d2afbacked Czechia | 2c | 2,568$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Czechia | 1c | 2,495$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Czechia | 13c | 2,282$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.57 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…f01cbacked Czechia | 4c | 2,219$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Czechia | 3c | 2,184$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Czechia | 1c | 2,055$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…edc9backed Czechia | 6c | 2,033$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…f76abacked Czechia | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Czechia | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Czechia | 1c | 1,987$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Czechia | 7c | 1,975$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…359bbacked Czechia | 1c | 1,851$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Czechia | 1c | 1,744$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…ef0fbacked Czechia | 3c | 1,668$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745f…010bbacked Czechia | 1c | 1,601$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Czechia | 2c | 1,515$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…f57dbacked Czechia | 1c | 1,446$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…96c1backed Czechia | 4c | 1,212$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Czechia | 1c | 1,209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Czechia | 4c | 1,150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Czechia | 9c | 1,074$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…8322backed Czechia | 3c | 1,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Czechia | 2c | 960.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Czechia | 3c | 959.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4543…38acbacked Czechia | 2c | 881.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Czechia | 2c | 875.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Czechia | 4c | 836.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Czechia | 4c | 805.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +201%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Czechia | 14c | 739.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Czechia | 3c | 735.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Czechia | 7c | 724.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b5…cab4backed Czechia | 1c | 721.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…771cbacked Czechia | 2c | 691.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Czechia | 3c | 645$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +254.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Czechia | 2c | 639.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Czechia | 10c | 559.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…0a24backed Czechia | 9c | 534.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Czechia | 3c | 500.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Czechia | 10c | 383.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Czechia | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…2d07backed Czechia | 6c | 323.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Czechia | 4c | 280.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Czechia | 7c | 278.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…0bbfbacked Czechia | 10c | 275.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…a14abacked Czechia | 6c | 274.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Czechia | 7c | 246$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Czechia | 6c | 244.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…57dbbacked Czechia | 11c | 230.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…f954backed Czechia | 5c | 218.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Czechia | 6c | 201.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…9088backed Czechia | 10c | 195.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Czechia | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Czechia | 10c | 183.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Czechia | 16c | 179$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91bb…91f7backed Czechia | 12c | 169.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Czechia | 10c | 152.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Czechia | 7c | 149.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Czechia | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Czechia | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…6c4abacked Czechia | 10c | 112.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…131bbacked Czechia | 17c | 109.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.