UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Dawson vs. Torres (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb70bb9ffa2e39abd754998cc04c66e8a5c461875518dd1d8c5340ff93a495a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Torresof Dawson, Torres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Torres | 28c | 25,285$7,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,184.8 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Dawson | 70c | 24,168$16,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,928.71 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Dawson | 72c | 20,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Torres | 60c | 17,843$10,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,190.28 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Torres | 30c | 17,354$5,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,089.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Torres | 30c | 12,994$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,064.31 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Torres | 30c | 11,405$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,958.48 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked Dawson | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Dawson | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dawson | 62c | 8,100$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040.88 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Torres | 29c | 6,117$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.18 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dawson | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dawson | 71c | 4,819$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.93 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Dawson | 71c | 4,225$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Dawson | 71c | 4,094$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.66 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…8540backed Dawson | 71c | 3,450$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Torres | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Torres | 30c | 2,994$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Torres | 68c | 2,831$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Dawson | 70c | 2,774$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.98 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Torres | 30c | 2,740$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…80c3backed Dawson | 69c | 2,731$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed Dawson | 69c | 1,981$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…4a7fbacked Dawson | 2c | 1,780$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 4cpaid | +651.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Torres | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Torres | 29c | 1,602$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.61 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Torres | 37c | 1,591$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.62 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Dawson | 71c | 1,538$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.08 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Dawson | 68c | 1,500$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.69 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Torres | 30c | 1,451$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.02 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dawson | 67c | 1,315$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Torres | 32c | 1,123$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.13 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Dawson | 71c | 1,120$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.2 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Torres | 32c | 999.86$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.91 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Dawson | 71c | 919.66$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.92 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Torres | 30c | 860.39$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.27 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Dawson | 70c | 840$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Torres | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Torres | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Torres | 29c | 777$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.76 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Dawson | 71c | 750$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Torres | 40c | 741.5$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Torres | 29c | 700$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…6726backed Dawson | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Torres | 40c | 655.6$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.46 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Dawson | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Dawson | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Torres | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Torres | 30c | 499.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Dawson | 72c | 420$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed Dawson | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Dawson | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…4849backed Dawson | 72c | 404.17$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Torres | 29c | 399.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Torres | 30c | 399.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Dawson | 71c | 350$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Torres | 29c | 345$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.95 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Torres | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…416dbacked Dawson | 71c | 341.28$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.64 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Torres | 40c | 337.87$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.87 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Torres | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Torres | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Dawson | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Dawson | 66c | 320.44$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…f3a6backed Torres | 32c | 314.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Dawson | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Torres | 30c | 299.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…50eabacked Dawson | 67c | 286.18$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Dawson | 67c | 285.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Torres | 35c | 276.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Torres | 36c | 263.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.66 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Torres | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Torres | 34c | 227.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Torres | 29c | 213.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed Dawson | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Dawson | 69c | 204.45$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Torres | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…2a7ebacked Torres | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Dawson | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Dawson | 70c | 198.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Torres | 32c | 184.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Dawson | 71c | 175$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Torres | 30c | 173.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Torres | 36c | 172.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…c45dbacked Torres | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…bb56backed Dawson | 71c | 166.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Torres | 30c | 166$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Torres | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Torres | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Torres | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Dawson | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Dawson | 68c | 146.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Dawson | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Dawson | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…394abacked Dawson | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Dawson | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Torres | 32c | 136.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Torres | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Torres | 36c | 128.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…8b35backed Dawson | 71c | 121.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Dawson vs. Torres (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Manuel Torres win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.