UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. Matsumoto

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3188ea5e87a65e28ffffcc5cc6275a7b415fdc725b4018ece83140042b9e21

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Matsumotoof Johns, Matsumoto
Resolved: Aug 9, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $468,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $477,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,403 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x011f…b3dfbacked Matsumoto	70c	367,620$256,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110,963.63	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Johns	31c	129,995$39,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39,898.43	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Johns	29c	102,952$30,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30,166.45	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Johns	31c	64,531$20,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,004.48	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Johns	30c	59,420$17,826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,825.99	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Johns	35c	18,068$6,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,312.8	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Johns	1c	12,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+291.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Johns	29c	11,031$3,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,198.64	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Johns	29c	10,000$2,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,900	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Matsumoto	68c	7,305$4,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,344.94	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Matsumoto	71c	7,041$4,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,041.85	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	63cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d4…f59bbacked Johns	31c	6,417$1,989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,989.38	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Matsumoto	68c	6,385$4,311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,074.25	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Johns	30c	4,770$1,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,430.91	177	52%92 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Matsumoto	71c	3,415$2,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.5	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Matsumoto	69c	3,201$2,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$996.85	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Matsumoto	69c	2,899$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$898.55	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Matsumoto	70c	2,832$1,977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$855.43	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Matsumoto	70c	2,226$1,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670.06	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Johns	30c	2,000$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.99	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Johns	31c	1,933$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.69	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Matsumoto	65c	1,850$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$645.46	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Johns	32c	1,849$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.57	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Johns	33c	1,467$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.74	215	54.4%117 W · 98 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Johns	28c	1,464$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Matsumoto	68c	1,424$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.43	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Johns	33c	1,087$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.61	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Johns	38c	1,000$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Johns	30c	985$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.5	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Johns	30c	961.33$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.4	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Matsumoto	71c	860.83$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.83	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Matsumoto	67c	846.08$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.26	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Matsumoto	65c	817$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.31	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+6.3wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Johns	30c	800$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Johns	29c	799.99$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Matsumoto	70c	785.71$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.71	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Johns	31c	700$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Matsumoto	67c	564.07$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.17	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Johns	29c	512.33$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.95	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Matsumoto	72c	506.08$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.8	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Johns	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Matsumoto	72c	495.13$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.1	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Matsumoto	68c	449.99$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Matsumoto	70c	410$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.27	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Matsumoto	67c	400$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Matsumoto	69c	357$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.44	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Johns	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Matsumoto	69c	324$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.44	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Johns	30c	322.79$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.37	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Johns	31c	319.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Matsumoto	71c	316$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.64	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8a…541fbacked Matsumoto	73c	295.51$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.51	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Johns	28c	292.56$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.92	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Matsumoto	69c	285.07$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.37	366	55.2%202 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Matsumoto	71c	250$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.5	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Johns	26c	242.38$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Johns	29c	231$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Matsumoto	71c	225.35$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.35	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Matsumoto	65c	219$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.65	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Johns	29c	217.24$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.52	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2201…9071backed Matsumoto	75c	206.72$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.89	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+2.9wins	+0.23per pick	62cpaid	+27%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Matsumoto	71c	200$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Matsumoto	62c	199.76$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Matsumoto	64c	195$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.85	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Johns	27c	185.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Matsumoto	72c	179.45$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.25	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Johns	33c	157.77$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.71	63	54%34 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Johns	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Matsumoto	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Matsumoto	65c	123.08$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.08	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Johns	28c	120$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Johns	27c	117.25$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.66	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed Matsumoto	73c	117.25$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.66	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Johns	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Matsumoto	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Johns	32c	97.2$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Johns	31c	85.77$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.54	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Matsumoto	65c	84.26$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.14	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Johns	28c	80.12$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Matsumoto	70c	74.01$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.06	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-6.3wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Matsumoto	68c	73.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.53	72	58.3%42 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Johns	32c	71.92$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Matsumoto	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Matsumoto	68c	66.67$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Matsumoto	71c	65.11$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	158	48.1%76 W · 82 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Johns	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Johns	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Matsumoto	72c	58.72$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Matsumoto	64c	54.23$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.52	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa896…e5c1backed Matsumoto	73c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d1…8749backed Matsumoto	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	75cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3635…17c8backed Johns	31c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Matsumoto	63c	45.65$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.95	223	34.1%76 W · 147 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Johns	34c	43.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Johns	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Matsumoto	64c	33.93$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.05	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Matsumoto	71c	33.8$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Matsumoto	66c	33.55$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.3	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Matsumoto	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9c…eedfbacked Matsumoto	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	64cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. Matsumotothis page
UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. Matsumoto

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event