UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Cachoeira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09ca5c92350857f7d33224f489bd9bfab192fb9a094d5951610cd1115c9df49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Edwardsof Edwards, Cachoeira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…b3dfbacked Cachoeira | 23c | 283,775$64,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,881.58 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Edwards | 77c | 140,000$108,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,750 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Edwards | 77c | 100,604$77,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,138.97 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Edwards | 77c | 25,109$19,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,775.07 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Edwards | 77c | 12,000$9,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cachoeira | 21c | 7,602$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.52 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Edwards | 78c | 3,400$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.68 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Edwards | 77c | 3,105$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.79 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cachoeira | 24c | 2,717$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Edwards | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Edwards | 77c | 1,852$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.58 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Edwards | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Edwards | 78c | 1,500$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Edwards | 79c | 1,394$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…97ecbacked Cachoeira | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Edwards | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Edwards | 77c | 1,252$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.24 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Cachoeira | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cachoeira | 21c | 999.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Cachoeira | 23c | 930$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Edwards | 76c | 921$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.04 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…387abacked Cachoeira | 23c | 857.88$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Edwards | 78c | 692.31$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked Edwards | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Edwards | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Cachoeira | 25c | 500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cachoeira | 24c | 425.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Edwards | 78c | 387$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Edwards | 78c | 332.32$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Edwards | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Edwards | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Cachoeira | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cachoeira | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Edwards | 78c | 215$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Edwards | 77c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Edwards | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Cachoeira | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked Edwards | 79c | 119.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cachoeira | 24c | 119.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Edwards | 79c | 105.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Cachoeira | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Edwards | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Cachoeira | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Cachoeira | 23c | 90.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Cachoeira | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Edwards | 78c | 70.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Edwards | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Edwards | 76c | 69.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Edwards | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Edwards | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Cachoeira | 24c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Edwards | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…3906backed Edwards | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Edwards | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Edwards | 79c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…a2e1backed Edwards | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…6e8ebacked Edwards | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Cachoeirathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
- UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
- UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
- UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
- UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
- UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
- UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
- UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.