UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Urbina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66c5cfaa66099e1fdc904263f4c28ff8328fa6d7b6e82ef7157bbc12af2ad66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medicof Medic, Urbina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…b3dfbacked Medic | 74c | 160,742$118,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,390.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Urbina | 26c | 150,000$39,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,000 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Medic | 74c | 113,321$83,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,484.5 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Urbina | 27c | 35,596$9,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,611.03 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Urbina | 26c | 19,000$4,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,970 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Urbina | 26c | 15,244$4,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Urbina | 26c | 12,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Urbina | 26c | 11,318$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.4 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Urbina | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Urbina | 27c | 8,507$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.93 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Medic | 73c | 6,714$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Urbina | 21c | 6,700$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Medic | 79c | 5,691$4,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.64 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Urbina | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Urbina | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Urbina | 22c | 2,278$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.07 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Urbina | 28c | 1,961$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.87 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Medic | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Urbina | 27c | 1,730$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.45 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…caeebacked Medic | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Urbina | 26c | 1,469$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.91 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medic | 72c | 1,108$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.08 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Urbina | 27c | 1,051$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Urbina | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Medic | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Urbina | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Urbina | 28c | 964.29$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Urbina | 25c | 846.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.95 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Medic | 74c | 629$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Urbina | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Urbina | 26c | 561.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Medic | 73c | 540$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Urbina | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…541fbacked Urbina | 24c | 435.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Medic | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…dce5backed Urbina | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Urbina | 26c | 380.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Urbina | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Urbina | 27c | 218.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…20e8backed Medic | 78c | 215$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Urbina | 26c | 199.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Urbina | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Medic | 74c | 159.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Medic | 73c | 156.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medic | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Medic | 74c | 111.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Urbina | 27c | 108.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medic | 75c | 105.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Urbina | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Urbina | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Urbina | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Medic | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Urbina | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Urbina | 27c | 89.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…1a55backed Medic | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Medic | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…9481backed Urbina | 25c | 76.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Urbina | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Urbina | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Urbina | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Medic | 71c | 68.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Medic | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…387abacked Medic | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Medic | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…b2b8backed Urbina | 24c | 62.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Urbina | 29c | 62.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Medic | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Urbina | 27c | 49.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Urbina | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Medic | 74c | 38.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Urbina | 27c | 37.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Medic | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Medic | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Urbinathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
- UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
- UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
- UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
- UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
- UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
- UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
- UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.