TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xccbf…dce5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst UFC at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$88
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$80
Red Sox vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$94.29
Cubs vs. Cardinalsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Marlins vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
Guardians vs. White Soxbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$98.18
Phillies vs. Rangersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Mets vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$88
Athletics vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Angels vs. Tigersbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
Red Sox vs. Padresbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Rays vs. Marinersbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Phillies vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Guardians vs. White Soxbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Astros vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Angels vs. Tigersbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Marlins vs. Bravesbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Athletics vs. Oriolesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$97.04
All 21 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandezbacked Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. Rodriguezbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Kazamabacked Kazama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Urbinabacked Urbina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicobacked McConico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$251.82
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Tairabacked Park · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan backed Rębecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
UFC Fight Night: Rosa vs. Cornollebacked Cornolle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore backed Vieira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$103.03
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Pulyaevbacked Pulyaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$127.87
All 10 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Storm vs Acesbacked Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+89.1%+$89.05
Liberty vs Wingsbacked Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Mystics vs Lynxbacked Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England beat Finland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Portugal beat Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST+35.1%+$6.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$167.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.