TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Pirates

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Piratesof Reds, Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$549,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$557,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,138 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 629 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x461f…7a07backed Pirates48c341,276$163,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,222.8912043.3%52 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Reds52c162,200$84,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,34422852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Reds52c51,130$26,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,587.666258.1%36 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe55a…761ebacked Reds53c48,359$25,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,630.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Reds53c42,500$22,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,524.9644456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Reds52c27,577$14,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,346.4538751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Pirates47c15,555$7,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,244.1560249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Pirates47c15,088$7,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,996.6438949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Reds53c12,098$6,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,383.981,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Reds52c10,200$5,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3041,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Reds52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20011150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3572…fadebacked Reds50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Reds64c7,838$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Pirates42c6,155$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,580.5254345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Reds47c5,779$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.6841747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe627…ffaabacked Reds42c5,740$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Reds52c5,500$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.977147.9%34 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Reds36c5,383$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.582142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Pirates46c4,933$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.8153150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Reds53c4,325$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.2438047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Pirates50c3,855$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.9633845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pirates41c3,673$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.6795930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Pirates49c3,627$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.351,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Pirates47c3,381$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.0233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds53c3,325$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.92,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…a674backed Pirates50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5685…c0d3backed Pirates50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Reds53c2,911$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.9225453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Reds52c2,400$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2489843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Reds52c2,344$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.9334550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds56c2,218$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.431,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Reds51c2,190$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.3323455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Reds52c2,118$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.895850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Reds49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef5…1f71backed Pirates50c2,001$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+131.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Reds52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04041643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f75…f4a3backed Reds50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+51.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc36…74f3backed Pirates50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Pirates48c1,999$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.5924248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Reds52c1,800$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93614446.5%67 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Reds53c1,793$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.3335952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…35aebacked Pirates50c1,700$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Reds52c1,670$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Reds53c1,666$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.3766645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd05…edf7backed Pirates50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+53.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Pirates51c1,480$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.1928453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Reds75c1,336$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pirates51c1,331$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.3725551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d2a…3d34backed Reds50c1,300$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…1742backed Pirates48c1,209$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.552138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds61c1,182$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.682,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pirates47c1,123$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.245,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Pirates47c1,092$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.6819449%95 W · 99 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Reds52c1,060$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.27349.3%36 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Pirates48c1,058$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.6570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb4…0a1dbacked Pirates49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Reds53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5308852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pirates48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Pirates47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Pirates48c999.89$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.0116347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Reds52c942$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8424253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Pirates51c910.99$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.3940152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Pirates47c893.62$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.623756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Pirates52c865.38$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.3822546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Reds74c845$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.368769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Reds50c843$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.441,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Reds58c812.73$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f0…5958backed Reds50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc145…4ce3backed Reds53c785.45$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.291060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea93…8159backed Pirates48c785.42$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.42850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pirates33c750.75$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.839,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Pirates47c750$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.533140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed Reds74c700$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-61.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Pirates31c694.27$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9310548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf7e…0fbfbacked Reds53c684.91$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3631060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2209…823ebacked Pirates48c680.94$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.091040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Pirates32c650$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44227733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x931e…8547backed Pirates50c610$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+91.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87bb…f672backed Reds50c606$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d3…44f9backed Reds50c594$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…aacdbacked Pirates50c590$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc352…51e3backed Pirates47c558$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.743762.2%23 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa5…a0d7backed Reds51c549$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Pirates52c541.51$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9212152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Reds49c504.86$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.389947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Pirates47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2651,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Pirates50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25030850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pirates47c499.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Pirates32c486.91$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.7880680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Reds52c477.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81c…9e5cbacked Reds51c471$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.21911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-76.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xae2a…add1backed Reds51c470.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…235cbacked Pirates48c424$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.484045%18 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3b3…d547backed Pirates50c410$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Reds54c408.09$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.375352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Reds50c401.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…d2fabacked Reds53c400.01$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2132450%12 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a0…8e5dbacked Pirates50c390$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b63…d2cfbacked Pirates48c341.81$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Pirates48c320$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.18356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.