Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal beat Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9af7ec002a0ea951f60a1b535c8510f02b236d8a0b67c755290ad301749d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 41c | 13,362$5,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…189fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…f75abacked Yes | 62c | 7,700$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 39c | 3,321$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 37c | 2,605$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 58c | 2,065$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.34 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2f…746cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,470$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…1af3backed No | 42c | 1,438$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…745cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,340$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…1961backed Yes | 60c | 901.01$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…dce5backed Yes | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 43c | 555$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.75 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 57c | 499.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 61c | 427.6$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 61c | 411.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 59c | 277.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 60c | 268.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…919dbacked No | 42c | 247.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 39c | 232.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed Yes | 61c | 175.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…336ebacked Yes | 61c | 123.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…0eecbacked Yes | 60c | 94.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yes | 62c | 81.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 62c | 77.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 38c | 74.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 39c | 72.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…4376backed No | 42c | 68.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…9869backed No | 42c | 65.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e7…9d49backed Yes | 62c | 64.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47a…c933backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…8196backed Yes | 62c | 63.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…8a0dbacked No | 42c | 60.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…c0f6backed Yes | 61c | 55.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…9adcbacked No | 41c | 48.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 60c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…0b96backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…df5fbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…7235backed Yes | 62c | 36.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5be6backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…6576backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…2eccbacked Yes | 60c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…ece5backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…fe29backed Yes | 61c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81f…e68dbacked Yes | 60c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal beat Poland?this page
- Will Poland beat Portugal?No won
- Will the match between Poland and Portugal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.