UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConico

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304467137c556875a7709f627a86d2fa7c1eff4a59e0667103e5af98ca16c7e9

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: McConicoof Brundage, McConico
Resolved: Aug 9, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,450 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc5b…5b15backed McConico	30c	5,022$1,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,517.73	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Brundage	79c	2,550$2,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Brundage	70c	2,534$1,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,773.69	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed McConico	24c	2,200$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,672	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+6.3wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed McConico	37c	1,975$731 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,244.25	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Brundage	62c	1,205$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.51	178	51.7%92 W · 86 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed McConico	34c	1,000$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$665	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Brundage	71c	937.49$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.68	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Brundage	68c	823.53$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.55	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Brundage	66c	821.47$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.41	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Brundage	63c	818.07$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.39	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Brundage	67c	742.65$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	299	48.8%146 W · 153 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Brundage	68c	740.21$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.35	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed McConico	31c	681.9$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.51	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked McConico	35c	653.27$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.35	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Brundage	61c	600$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed McConico	33c	594.86$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.8	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccbf…dce5backed McConico	39c	412.82$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.82	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Brundage	62c	400$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Brundage	68c	350$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Brundage	69c	333.33$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Brundage	69c	300$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Brundage	73c	300$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked McConico	31c	290.41$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.38	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked McConico	32c	273.53$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186	265	52.1%138 W · 127 L	+23.9wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Brundage	69c	265.41$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.13	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked McConico	37c	256.67$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.7	66	53%35 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked McConico	40c	250$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed McConico	32c	249.99$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Brundage	57c	246$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.22	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Brundage	65c	245.5$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.57	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked McConico	32c	242.85$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.14	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Brundage	63c	240$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4b…f7dbbacked McConico	39c	199.08$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+156.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Brundage	74c	147.91$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.89	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Brundage	68c	147.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	223	34.1%76 W · 147 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed McConico	36c	138.89$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.89	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Brundage	78c	130$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.4	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed McConico	32c	122.75$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.47	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Brundage	69c	114.55$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.12	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Brundage	68c	100$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Brundage	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	160	58.8%94 W · 66 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84dc…9c02backed McConico	31c	99.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.99	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Brundage	69c	96.16$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.08	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed McConico	34c	81.97$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.1	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Brundage	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Brundage	66c	70.14$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.05	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Brundage	70c	64.66$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.26	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked McConico	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Brundage	64c	59.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.1	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed McConico	32c	59.48$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.45	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Brundage	68c	58.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed McConico	22c	50$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	194	18.6%36 W · 158 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Brundage	70c	44.77$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Brundage	77c	44.17$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1cd…a252backed Brundage	68c	44.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Brundage	69c	42$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…9481backed Brundage	58c	32.85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked Brundage	69c	29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Brundage	70c	28.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	228	53.1%121 W · 107 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7284…ea5dbacked Brundage	70c	28.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked McConico	39c	27.86$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.86	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07c…551dbacked Brundage	76c	27.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-5.6wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Brundage	67c	22.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Brundage	70c	15.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicothis page
UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConico

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event