UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. Stoliarenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6b46d57cf0f89f20292e52ed4c144b65e0b52954d229df9df3172bf28eb89a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandesof Fernandes, Stoliarenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Fernandes | 80c | 19,027$15,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.49 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Stoliarenko | 20c | 12,334$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.21 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Stoliarenko | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stoliarenko | 20c | 8,500$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Fernandes | 79c | 3,908$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Stoliarenko | 22c | 2,009$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.06 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Stoliarenko | 20c | 1,823$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Stoliarenko | 21c | 1,584$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.56 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Stoliarenko | 10c | 1,285$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Stoliarenko | 19c | 1,127$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fernandes | 78c | 1,046$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Stoliarenko | 19c | 930.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Stoliarenko | 20c | 822.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Stoliarenko | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Stoliarenko | 22c | 604.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked Fernandes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Stoliarenko | 23c | 439.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Stoliarenko | 20c | 397.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Fernandes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Stoliarenko | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Fernandes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stoliarenko | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 219.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Stoliarenko | 21c | 208.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stoliarenko | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 199.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandes | 78c | 127.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Stoliarenko | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Stoliarenko | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Fernandes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Fernandes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Stoliarenko | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Fernandes | 79c | 81.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Stoliarenko | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Stoliarenko | 21c | 70.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Stoliarenko | 22c | 67.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Fernandes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Fernandes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Stoliarenko | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Stoliarenko | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Stoliarenko | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Stoliarenko | 22c | 45.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…f8adbacked Fernandes | 80c | 44.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Fernandes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Fernandes | 75c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…ca45backed Fernandes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. Stoliarenkothis page
- UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
- UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
- UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
- UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
- UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
- UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
- UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
- UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
- UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.