UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Cerqueira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e2fc80b29f5bee1a03f463c1a85fb21b53d42080137747ee9d48ea51470fc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Walkerof Walker, Cerqueira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Cerqueira | 9c | 8,103$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.75 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Cerqueira | 15c | 7,306$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.66 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cerqueira | 16c | 2,043$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.8 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cerqueira | 13c | 1,844$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cerqueira | 15c | 1,471$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cerqueira | 13c | 1,312$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Cerqueira | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cerqueira | 14c | 682.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cerqueira | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cerqueira | 17c | 603.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Cerqueira | 16c | 583.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Cerqueira | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Cerqueira | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cerqueira | 8c | 402.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cerqueira | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Cerqueira | 22c | 302.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Cerqueira | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Cerqueira | 15c | 252.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Cerqueira | 21c | 209.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Cerqueira | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Cerqueira | 15c | 199.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Cerqueira | 17c | 186.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Cerqueira | 14c | 173.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Walker | 79c | 131.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Cerqueira | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Cerqueira | 16c | 124.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Cerqueira | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Cerqueira | 17c | 104.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Cerqueira | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Cerqueira | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Cerqueira | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…2301backed Cerqueira | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Cerqueira | 17c | 91.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Cerqueira | 18c | 70.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Cerqueira | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Walker | 78c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Cerqueirathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
- UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
- UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
- UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
- UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
- UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
- UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
- UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
- UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.