UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. Osbourne

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28655684a85c4699ddd0dfcc02fa481281c81a28ac0b98aba8bab7ace8bfb60d

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ercegof Erceg, Osbourne
Resolved: Aug 9, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,783 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Osbourne	41c	24,504$10,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,148.24	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Erceg	70c	11,511$8,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,411.23	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Erceg	59c	8,744$5,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,568.73	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa421…8c83backed Osbourne	20c	8,558$1,716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,715.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Erceg	68c	7,370$4,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,386.06	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Osbourne	27c	4,737$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.99	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Erceg	52c	3,661$1,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,744.4	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Osbourne	19c	3,372$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.74	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Osbourne	19c	2,933$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.15	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Osbourne	17c	2,306$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.02	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Osbourne	18c	2,235$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.29	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Erceg	50c	2,042$1,028 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,013.6	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Erceg	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+5.5wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Osbourne	54c	2,000$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.99	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Erceg	50c	1,811$906 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$905.5	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Osbourne	19c	1,611$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.06	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Osbourne	19c	1,089$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.98	130	39.2%51 W · 79 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Osbourne	46c	973$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.01	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Osbourne	19c	900$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Osbourne	67c	750.72$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb7…865dbacked Osbourne	18c	744.44$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Erceg	60c	718.22$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.24	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Osbourne	19c	533.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Osbourne	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Osbourne	40c	483.95$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.19	106	50.9%54 W · 52 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Osbourne	16c	447.01$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.75	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Erceg	65c	442.79$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.54	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Erceg	59c	392.22$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.5	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Erceg	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Osbourne	17c	322.02$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.46	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Osbourne	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Osbourne	18c	272.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc485…948dbacked Osbourne	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Erceg	48c	250$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	264	51.9%137 W · 127 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9965…80e3backed Osbourne	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Erceg	40c	248.98$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Osbourne	18c	213.87$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Osbourne	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Osbourne	17c	194.12$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Osbourne	18c	190.89$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Erceg	45c	179.22$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.31	223	34.1%76 W · 147 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00bd…95f9backed Erceg	73c	172.12$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-10.7wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Erceg	56c	169.22$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.22	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Erceg	60c	152.52$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.01	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Erceg	77c	148.38$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.32	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Osbourne	74c	140.98$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Osbourne	26c	140.56$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Osbourne	45c	140$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Erceg	44c	139.29$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.36	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Osbourne	18c	136.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Osbourne	15c	136.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Osbourne	17c	128.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a01…0d9abacked Osbourne	42c	103.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Osbourne	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Osbourne	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Osbourne	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Osbourne	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b26…9bc4backed Osbourne	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdb…7ea3backed Osbourne	18c	91.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Osbourne	27c	83.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc90…a076backed Erceg	69c	79.99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Erceg	68c	75.7$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.88	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x71f3…bb5cbacked Osbourne	19c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed Osbourne	18c	61.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc631…e20abacked Osbourne	19c	57.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Erceg	61c	53.22$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Erceg	74c	52.95$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.64	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Erceg	58c	51.73$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.55	63	54%34 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44d6…aafdbacked Osbourne	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Erceg	60c	40.33$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.13	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Osbourne	52c	34.51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…9f56backed Osbourne	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff48…7242backed Osbourne	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb73…1e52backed Erceg	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	94	52.1%49 W · 45 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x405f…3897backed Osbourne	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.41per pick	61cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Erceg	61c	17.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. Osbournethis page
UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. DuncanDuncan won
UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. Osbourne

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event