UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. Duncan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118c012ad90884f634064bfc3b295f4fc682c547624558697198875590492e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duncanof Anders, Duncan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Anders | 20c | 18,944$3,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,782.92 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Anders | 20c | 4,032$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Duncan | 79c | 3,655$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.38 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Duncan | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Duncan | 78c | 1,890$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Anders | 20c | 1,677$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.55 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Anders | 18c | 1,600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Duncan | 79c | 1,573$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Anders | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Anders | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Anders | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Anders | 19c | 941$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ac77backed Duncan | 80c | 872.51$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Anders | 20c | 830$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Duncan | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Duncan | 79c | 663$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293d…3ef4backed Anders | 21c | 537.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Anders | 19c | 515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Duncan | 80c | 499$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…8c7fbacked Anders | 19c | 450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Anders | 23c | 372$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Anders | 28c | 353.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Anders | 18c | 309.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Duncan | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Duncan | 80c | 265$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Anders | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Anders | 22c | 213.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Anders | 18c | 204.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Anders | 18c | 179.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Anders | 18c | 179.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Anders | 28c | 146$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Anders | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Anders | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Anders | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Anders | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…78f9backed Anders | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…2301backed Anders | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…09e4backed Anders | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Duncan | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Duncan | 79c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Duncan | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Anders | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Duncan | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Duncan | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Anders vs. Duncanthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Brundage vs. McConicoMcConico won
- UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. CachoeiraEdwards won
- UFC Fight Night: Erceg vs. OsbourneErceg won
- UFC Fight Night: Fernandes vs. StoliarenkoFernandes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fili vs. RodriguezFili won
- UFC Fight Night: Johns vs. MatsumotoMatsumoto won
- UFC Fight Night: Lucindo vs. HillLucindo won
- UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. UrbinaMedic won
- UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. KazamaSmith won
- UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. CerqueiraWalker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.