UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. Fletcher

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x517fcd9f77c49a938511cef570e8e25401a3f20dd30af3deb5e7a217d3bfdd6b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Nakamuraof Nakamura, Fletcher
Resolved: Aug 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,100 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Nakamura	76c	20,008$15,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,840.9	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Fletcher	24c	15,223$3,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,653.63	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Nakamura	78c	5,015$3,910 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,105.22	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Nakamura	75c	5,000$3,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf635…e876backed Fletcher	25c	4,365$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.36	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Fletcher	24c	3,663$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.23	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Fletcher	22c	3,000$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Fletcher	24c	3,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakamura	76c	2,750$2,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.99	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Fletcher	23c	2,600$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Fletcher	24c	2,324$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.66	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Fletcher	22c	2,234$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Nakamura	77c	2,000$1,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nakamura	74c	2,000$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.99	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Fletcher	25c	1,995$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Fletcher	13c	1,690$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.7	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nakamura	75c	1,620$1,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Nakamura	78c	1,240$967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.8	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Fletcher	25c	1,159$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.73	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nakamura	76c	1,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Nakamura	76c	1,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Fletcher	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Nakamura	75c	1,000$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Fletcher	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Nakamura	78c	905.76$703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.32	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Fletcher	25c	859.36$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.84	100	40%40 W · 60 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Fletcher	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-5.8wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Fletcher	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Fletcher	26c	788$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.88	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Nakamura	76c	658.55$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.55	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Nakamura	76c	620$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Nakamura	76c	562$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.88	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Nakamura	78c	500$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Fletcher	23c	426.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fletcher	24c	416.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Fletcher	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Fletcher	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc15a…4e2abacked Fletcher	26c	347.22$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Fletcher	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Fletcher	26c	250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Nakamura	77c	249.99$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Nakamura	78c	202.8$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.62	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Nakamura	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Fletcher	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Fletcher	22c	199.64$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.87	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nakamura	78c	179.24$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.43	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Fletcher	21c	165$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffb0…8669backed Fletcher	26c	154.35$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nakamura	74c	133.72$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.77	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Nakamura	76c	131.59$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.58	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	71cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Fletcher	24c	130.53$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+7.1wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25ed…9481backed Nakamura	76c	130.53$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.33	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…0d06backed Fletcher	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Fletcher	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Fletcher	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Nakamura	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.25	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Fletcher	25c	93$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…78f9backed Fletcher	24c	84.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecd…8dacbacked Fletcher	24c	83.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Fletcher	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c23…0b6abacked Nakamura	76c	82$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.68	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Nakamura	76c	81.58$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Nakamura	75c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Fletcher	25c	55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Fletcher	22c	51.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Fletcher	24c	49.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Fletcher	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Nakamura	76c	39.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.47	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Nakamura	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Nakamura	78c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.5	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	58cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Nakamura	75c	23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.75	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Nakamura	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55da…839abacked Nakamura	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	78cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. Fletcherthis page
UFC Fight Night: Bashi vs. Yannis Bashi won
UFC Fight Night: Brener vs. RibovicsRibovics won
UFC Fight Night: Estevam vs. Bunes Estevam won
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. PulyaevPulyaev won
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. dos SantosMagny won
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. TairaTaira won
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. SouzaRodriguez won
UFC Fight Night: Rosa vs. CornolleRosa won
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan Duncan won
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. VallejosVallejos won
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore Vieira won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. Fletcher

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event