UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Souza

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0cce1f24360e84a47ae5e664d47fb25f18145227598626815521eb701a76b6e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rodriguezof Rodriguez, Souza
Resolved: Aug 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $59,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x011f…b3dfbacked Souza	32c	11,822$3,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,769	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rodriguez	70c	7,393$5,172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,220.33	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Rodriguez	68c	5,061$3,441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,619.49	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Souza	30c	3,548$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.55	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Souza	23c	2,820$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.75	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rodriguez	68c	2,561$1,734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$826.34	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Rodriguez	69c	2,135$1,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$661.71	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Souza	33c	2,062$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.87	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rodriguez	67c	2,021$1,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.52	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Souza	34c	2,000$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Rodriguez	69c	2,000$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Rodriguez	65c	1,940$1,259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.14	178	51.7%92 W · 86 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Souza	32c	1,800$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.99	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Souza	15c	1,707$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.13	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rodriguez	72c	1,639$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.93	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Rodriguez	66c	1,503$992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.11	122	35.2%43 W · 79 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Souza	31c	1,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Souza	31c	1,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Souza	31c	1,500$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.2	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Souza	27c	1,303$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.9	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Rodriguez	72c	1,273$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$361.1	299	48.8%146 W · 153 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Souza	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	194	18.6%36 W · 158 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Souza	36c	1,078$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.75	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Rodriguez	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Souza	27c	980$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.6	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Rodriguez	68c	818.28$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.85	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Souza	20c	805.66$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.09	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Souza	31c	703.23$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Souza	32c	700$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df4…342cbacked Rodriguez	70c	654.23$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Rodriguez	70c	600$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Souza	35c	500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Rodriguez	68c	500$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Souza	32c	499$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.68	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Souza	36c	467.99$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.25	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Souza	32c	361.11$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.76	100	45%45 W · 55 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4f…9437backed Rodriguez	67c	358.21$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.21	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fb…849ebacked Souza	30c	354.35$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Souza	33c	300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Souza	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Souza	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Rodriguez	68c	289.69$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.7	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Souza	7c	250$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Souza	31c	200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Rodriguez	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Rodriguez	70c	180$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Souza	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Souza	27c	149.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Rodriguez	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x051a…98b9backed Rodriguez	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdb33…aaadbacked Souza	29c	134$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3170…401fbacked Souza	34c	117.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Rodriguez	65c	110.8$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.78	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Souza	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e7…c7c7backed Souza	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1806…19bfbacked Rodriguez	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Souza	16c	64.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x413f…67c3backed Souza	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Rodriguez	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Souza	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20bc…f61bbacked Rodriguez	70c	48.29$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Souza	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	151	39.7%60 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c59…b8e9backed Souza	35c	42.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35a…2157backed Rodriguez	71c	42.45$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Souza	34c	41.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Souza	27c	41.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x83ce…0d06backed Souza	29c	39.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Souza	35c	37.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a01…0d9abacked Rodriguez	69c	37.84$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.84	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x120e…6850backed Souza	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Rodriguez	67c	29.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	77	37.7%29 W · 48 L	-7.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Rodriguez	68c	29$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…9481backed Rodriguez	64c	28.06$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Rodriguez	71c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	58cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Rodriguez	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749e…8626backed Rodriguez	69c	24.64$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.64	78	59%46 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Rodriguez	70c	21.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.38	16	50%8 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Rodriguez	75c	16.93$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.23	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Rodriguez	66c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.44	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Souzathis page
UFC Fight Night: Bashi vs. Yannis Bashi won
UFC Fight Night: Brener vs. RibovicsRibovics won
UFC Fight Night: Estevam vs. Bunes Estevam won
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. PulyaevPulyaev won
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. dos SantosMagny won
UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. FletcherNakamura won
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. TairaTaira won
UFC Fight Night: Rosa vs. CornolleRosa won
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan Duncan won
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. VallejosVallejos won
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore Vieira won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Souza

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event