UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Estevam vs. Bunes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4159ebb351a94ec20413937a3e5f73886647d732921fe01e63aebca9dff006f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estevamof Estevam, Bunes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…b3dfbacked Bunes | 15c | 56,731$8,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,467.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Bunes | 16c | 29,282$4,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,647.95 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bunes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Bunes | 18c | 3,313$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.79 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Bunes | 16c | 3,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bunes | 18c | 2,750$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.25 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Bunes | 20c | 2,576$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.23 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Bunes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Estevam | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Bunes | 21c | 1,584$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.26 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bunes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Bunes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…4660backed Bunes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Bunes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Bunes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Bunes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bunes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bunes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Bunes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Bunes | 19c | 461.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Estevam | 79c | 420.19$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Bunes | 24c | 380$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Bunes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Bunes | 13c | 310$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Bunes | 5c | 251.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bunes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Bunes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Bunes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…19bfbacked Bunes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Bunes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Bunes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Bunes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Bunes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Bunes | 16c | 99.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…78f9backed Bunes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Bunes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Estevam | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Estevam vs. Bunes this page
- UFC Fight Night: Bashi vs. Yannis Bashi won
- UFC Fight Night: Brener vs. RibovicsRibovics won
- UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. PulyaevPulyaev won
- UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. dos SantosMagny won
- UFC Fight Night: Nakamura vs. FletcherNakamura won
- UFC Fight Night: Park vs. TairaTaira won
- UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. SouzaRodriguez won
- UFC Fight Night: Rosa vs. CornolleRosa won
- UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan Duncan won
- UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. VallejosVallejos won
- UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Gore Vieira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.