UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4c8856fe4da54c371c5d4e6d40a8d7aa6e0ae347104c353e3ca1f6b72e989e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murphy of Murphy , Pico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $808,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $998,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $808,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Murphy | 77c | 145,714$112,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,811.96 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Murphy | 41c | 98,661$40,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,929.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Pico | 59c | 87,565$51,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,457.58 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Murphy | 41c | 57,174$23,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,004.33 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Pico | 59c | 49,681$29,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,312 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Murphy | 40c | 47,421$18,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,658.36 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Murphy | 44c | 38,408$17,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,402.12 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Pico | 58c | 35,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,399.91 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Pico | 60c | 30,000$18,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,099.99 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Murphy | 40c | 27,765$11,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,575.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…7f58backed Pico | 59c | 24,978$14,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,737.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…a70dbacked Pico | 60c | 23,115$13,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,899.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pico | 59c | 20,275$11,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,962.1 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e954backed Murphy | 42c | 19,575$8,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,436.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Murphy | 40c | 18,179$7,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,907.53 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Pico | 61c | 18,177$11,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,059.41 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Pico | 59c | 17,925$10,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,640.76 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…c0dfbacked Murphy | 46c | 16,433$7,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,921.38 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Pico | 58c | 15,637$9,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,121.3 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Pico | 58c | 15,281$8,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,907.41 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pico | 60c | 13,276$8,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,016.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Pico | 60c | 12,155$7,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,286.11 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Murphy | 39c | 12,007$4,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,299 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Murphy | 39c | 11,381$4,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,894.92 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Pico | 58c | 10,876$6,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,358.61 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pico | 58c | 10,823$6,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.63 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Pico | 60c | 9,691$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.02 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Pico | 56c | 9,388$5,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,232.36 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Pico | 58c | 7,236$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.88 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Pico | 58c | 6,695$3,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,898.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f73…8d13backed Pico | 58c | 6,046$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Murphy | 76c | 5,346$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.34 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77dc…7897backed Murphy | 42c | 5,297$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Murphy | 40c | 5,150$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Pico | 55c | 5,134$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Pico | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…02f9backed Murphy | 40c | 4,918$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5187…4805backed Murphy | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,878.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…1cd1backed Pico | 60c | 4,835$2,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Pico | 60c | 4,063$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Pico | 59c | 3,900$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Murphy | 18c | 3,816$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.41 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…0fa0backed Murphy | 41c | 3,663$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…32c8backed Murphy | 41c | 3,659$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Pico | 58c | 3,541$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.87 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Pico | 62c | 3,400$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Murphy | 41c | 3,270$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Murphy | 41c | 3,116$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.76 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Pico | 64c | 3,021$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.92 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Murphy | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Pico | 1c | 2,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Pico | 3c | 2,906$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…20e8backed Pico | 59c | 2,753$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Murphy | 40c | 2,600$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pico | 57c | 2,592$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.19 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Pico | 60c | 2,560$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Pico | 59c | 2,533$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Murphy | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Murphy | 42c | 2,480$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Murphy | 41c | 2,441$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.46 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…c4b2backed Murphy | 41c | 2,300$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…5c56backed Pico | 58c | 2,250$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Murphy | 42c | 2,149$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc985…1e7dbacked Pico | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Pico | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pico | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Murphy | 41c | 1,945$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Pico | 60c | 1,929$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Pico | 61c | 1,855$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Murphy | 38c | 1,827$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pico | 60c | 1,823$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.53 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Pico | 59c | 1,810$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.3 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pico | 60c | 1,793$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.12 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Murphy | 42c | 1,550$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Pico | 59c | 1,544$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Murphy | 42c | 1,430$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Murphy | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.57 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Pico | 18c | 1,400$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Murphy | 42c | 1,250$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Murphy | 40c | 1,246$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.64 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Pico | 61c | 1,230$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Murphy | 40c | 1,181$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Pico | 61c | 1,150$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Murphy | 42c | 1,065$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Murphy | 40c | 1,050$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Pico | 10c | 1,026$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Pico | 58c | 1,024$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Pico | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Pico | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Pico | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Pico | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Pico | 57c | 1,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Pico | 59c | 978.07$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.06 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Murphy | 40c | 850$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Murphy | 41c | 828.22$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Murphy | 39c | 808.83$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.39 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…e89cbacked Murphy | 39c | 800.76$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Pico | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Pico | 8c | 749.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Pico | 59c | 735$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico this page
- UFC 319: Andrade vs. GodinezGodinez won
- UFC 319: Barboza vs. KloseKlose won
- UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Page won
- UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevChimaev won
- UFC 319: Elliott vs. AsakuraElliott won
- UFC 319: Hooper vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC 319: Idiris vs. MoralesMorales won
- UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Prates won
- UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa Silva won
- UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. NolanSusurkaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.