UFC · resolved market
UFC 319: Idiris vs. Morales
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94d4447bf37f708e8851b67480c24c46b3ffb6dcce9a86392a0810873e36754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moralesof Idiris, Morales
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Morales | 47c | 7,170$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.2 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Morales | 22c | 4,595$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.03 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Idiris | 78c | 3,593$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.19 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Idiris | 63c | 2,492$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.18 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Morales | 21c | 2,246$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.85 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Idiris | 24c | 2,080$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Idiris | 80c | 1,000$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…b34ebacked Morales | 21c | 936.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Morales | 19c | 900$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Idiris | 65c | 867.67$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Idiris | 79c | 735.42$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.78 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Idiris | 80c | 717.65$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.12 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Morales | 21c | 615$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.85 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Idiris | 63c | 551.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Idiris | 39c | 501.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Morales | 18c | 475.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.58 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…9481backed Idiris | 79c | 445.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Morales | 17c | 445.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Morales | 19c | 422.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Morales | 18c | 359.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Morales | 19c | 334.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Idiris | 80c | 247$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Idiris | 80c | 225$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…1208backed Idiris | 49c | 221.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Idiris | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Morales | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Idiris | 77c | 189.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…4bb7backed Idiris | 80c | 185$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Idiris | 57c | 152.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Morales | 16c | 151.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f73…bfacbacked Morales | 28c | 127.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Morales | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Idiris | 58c | 118.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Idiris | 52c | 114.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Idiris | 65c | 110.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Morales | 31c | 100.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Morales | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…a3f1backed Morales | 21c | 87.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Idiris | 35c | 85.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…b82cbacked Idiris | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Idiris | 72c | 75.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Idiris | 75c | 71.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Morales | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…e9e0backed Morales | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Idiris | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Idiris | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…2f76backed Morales | 25c | 64.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…624bbacked Morales | 20c | 62.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Idiris | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…7a00backed Morales | 25c | 50.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…1100backed Morales | 40c | 50.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Morales | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Idiris | 29c | 47.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Idiris | 77c | 33.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Idiris | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…a1cbbacked Morales | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef9…b26bbacked Idiris | 78c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d0…06bdbacked Idiris | 77c | 22.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…a844backed Idiris | 78c | 21.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Idiris | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Idiris | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…bb5cbacked Idiris | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Idiris | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Morales | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…d3f2backed Idiris | 77c | 18.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…2a9dbacked Idiris | 78c | 14.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…2e19backed Idiris | 78c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Idiris | 77c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 319: Idiris vs. Moralesthis page
- UFC 319: Andrade vs. GodinezGodinez won
- UFC 319: Barboza vs. KloseKlose won
- UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Page won
- UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevChimaev won
- UFC 319: Elliott vs. AsakuraElliott won
- UFC 319: Hooper vs. HernandezHernandez won
- UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Murphy won
- UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Prates won
- UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa Silva won
- UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. NolanSusurkaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.